Volkstok'n'barrell is the clear favourite over Mongolian Khan. The differential is now $2.60 for Volkstok'n'barrell and $4. Impressive filly Vavasour at $9 is the only other runner at single-figure odds.
Derbys are tactical races and this will be no exception. Trainers are understandably reluctant to give too much away about their individual tactics, but Donna Logan is happy to declare Volkstok'n'barrell will not be placed in running as he was in the Avondale Guineas.
In that race, he was back second last and had to make a remarkable run at the leaders in the home straight to finish third.
"Someone said Volkstok'n'barrell could possibly lead, I can promise you he won't be in front, but he won't be back second-last either.
"I'd like to see him somewhere near mid-field."
Volkstok'n'barrell has drawn barrier four and Matt Cameron will probably be desperate to ensure he ends up one horse width off the rail.
Midfield on the rail is not the place to be 800m out in a Derby as the 3-year-olds unable to see out the 2400m start dropping back through the field.
You can never view major races like this, but this Derby looks like a two-horse race - Volkstok'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan.
You can almost guarantee Mongolian Khan, as he has done in recent races, will be somewhere on the speed. Opie Bosson gets on famously with the handsome Cambridge colt and it's highly likely he will attempt similar tactics to those that had him in front by mid-race in the Avondale Guineas.
Mongolian Khan is the perfect 2400m horse. He relaxes beautifully without pulling and waits for his rider to tell him when to extend. He is strong and fights hard and his perfect tactics take the luck factor out.
Vavasour is a classy filly, but has been unlucky enough to have drawn barrier No 15. Leith Innes probably has few options other than to go forward early, but that is her preferred racing style and she should not be too badly placed by the time the field leaves the home straight with a round to go.
Vavasour is a dour type who will see out the 2400m better than most of the opposition.
Midnitemagicman looked a different horse when he lined up for the Avondale Guineas and raced accordingly.
"He has come on in development very well, but he's still probably six months away," said Donna Logan.
"He has not laboured to stay with the other horse [Volkstok'n'barrell] in their work, but he's still not quite there physically. That said, if he gets the right run he's a top five chance."
Punting pointers
Class wins Derbys: Volkstok'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan (R9 Ellerslie) have shown they are the class among the 3-year-old stayers. One of them should win the Derby and we are declaring for Volkstok'n'barrell.
Sprinter: Passing Shot (R5 Ellerslie). Has shown he's at his best over the sprints and at level weights and with the rails draw they are going to have to go hard to beat him.
Luck change: Mabeel (R6 Ellerslie). If you did your dollars when Mabeel stumbled early and Opie Bosson lost his stirrup irons, double up.
