Racing: Let's talk about the weather

Now here's something the TAB should open a book on - the track conditions for Hastings on Saturday.

Make no mistake, the footing will be absolutely critical to the result of the spring's first feature, the group one $200,000 Mudgway Fair Tax Stakes to be run over 1400 metres.

In the green corner is the MetService, which is predicting rain and hail for Saturday in Hastings.

In the red corner is Auckland-based former MetService weather forecaster Ken Ring, who says the weather will remain dry.

The Herald published a story on Monday quoting Ken Ring saying the weather for the top half of the North Island would remain fine until the end of the month.

Rain in most places on Tuesday night put that prediction well outside Ring's usual 90 per cent accuracy, but he remains dedicated to fine weather for Hawkes Bay until at least Sunday.

A fine mist fell for a time at Hastings yesterday, but Hawkes Bay Racing CEO John McGifford said that and the very cold weather would have had no effect on the track.

In fact, it has firmed since Monday to be 2.5 from 2.7.

McGifford was not worried about a few showers from this point.

"We had trouble in the winter when the water tables were very high and water couldn't get away, but that's all gone.

"If we had some rain it would get away quickly."

Punters must be nervous over the volatility of weather swings, given that substantial money has already been placed on the Mudgway, essentially since futures opened in July and more significantly in the past five days.

"Most of the money was bet on the futures before punters had any idea of what the weather would be like," said TAB head bookmaker Paul Lally.

"The money we've had since the weekend has almost all been for the mudders like Bulginbaah and Irish Rover."

Lally shortened the favourite Miss Potential in from $5 to $4.50 on the strength of her Taupo barrier trials win on Tuesday and kept her there after the class mare yesterday drew ideally at barrier No 7.

"Shinzig was heavily backed with us on the futures book, but we've now let him out from $6.50 to $8.

"We've also eased Xcellent from $7 to $8 after drawing barrier No 17, but to be fair, that's probably not going to make a great deal of difference to him.

"Irish Rover is in to $12, but if it doesn't rain he'll be extended out."

Lally admitted he was keeping a close eye on the sky.

"It shows you how hard our job is - we can't even predict the weather."

Then Lally remembered his customers. "But it's the same for the punters."

Regular rider Reese Jones was delighted with Miss Potential's narrow but impressive win at the Taupo trials.

"She was out there only for a training run. I sat three wide on her for the best ground and I asked her for only a stretch to win narrowly.

"She had a bit of a puff and with the trip to Hastings later in the day it was perfect."

Owner and trainer Bill Borrie declared himself very happy with the mare, who stretched the neck of Australian Starcraft in last year's Mudgway.

That came after she injured herself on the float trip on the way to Hawkes Bay the day before the races.

Borrie is impressed with the condition of the Hasting track.

"It's got a little crust on top, but it should be perfect on Saturday if the weather stays away."

* The Mudgway Fair Tax Stakes at Hastings will be run at 3.54pm on Saturday.

Mudgway Stakes

1 108X3 Balmuse tdmb (9) D Walker 58.5

2 21115 Ben Sparta dm (1) R Norvall 58.5

3 12541 Bulginbaah m (5) 58.5

4 08451 Irish Rover tcdm (20) L Cropp 58.5

5 755X3 Maroofity d (2) M Walker 58.5

6 24450 Pacific Dancer (13) 58.5

7 2423X Silky Red Boxer tcd (8) 58.5

8 10X73 Zvezda tdm (19) H Tinsley 58.5

9 8112X Magnetism dm (10) J Collett 57

10 2121X Mandela d (18) 57

11 454X1 Shinzig dm (12) L Innes 57

12 1118X Xcellent (17) M Coleman 57

13 015X0 Miss Potential (7) R Jones 56

14 5666X Rapid Kay td (11) G Cooksley 56

15 1525X The Jewel db (3) 56

16 3997X Clean Sweep (14) C Lammas 54.5

17 22131 Baltaine m (15) 58.5

18 12417 Hustler dm (4) 58.5

19 34132 Rat Tat dm (6) 58.5

20 101X1 Hurrah td (16) 57

Emergencies: Baltaine, Hustler, Rat Tat, Hurrah