Racing: Lazarus needs to raise game in today's Sires' Stakes

Northern horses may not win the $170,000 Sires' Stakes Final today but they might hold the key to who does.

While Lazarus (R7, No11) is red-hot for the first group one 3-year-old race of the year, his second line draw and missing a crucial trial last Wednesday because of boils mean he can't be rated a good thing.

His connections say he is over the setback but if he has to work hard in what is traditionally a brutal 1950m, he becomes vulnerable.

How likely that is could depend on Motown (1) and Art Form (4) who have both emerged as high class classic croppers this term and are also blessed with high gate speed.

Motown looks the leader to the first bend for Josh Dickie and then he can choose to stay in front or relent to Art Form or Franco Christiano.

If he does that and sits in the trail Motown has an upset each way chance, as would Art Form, especially following Franco Christiano.

But if either horse handed up to Lazarus, or even Chase The Dream, then they could be racing for second.

Chase The Dream (10) may not look well suited by his draw of one on the second line but with a fast inside front line he could punch into a nice position after 200m and get off the markers into the first bend as the field breaks open.

He was outstanding at the Cup trials last Wednesday and as the only horse to have beaten Lazarus (twice), Chase The Dream's $7 quote is too long compared with the $1.70 for Lazarus.

Bad draws can often prove to be good ones if things get crazy in the Sires' Stakes and trainer-driver Maurice McKendry will be hoping that is the case for Shandale (15) who has some x-factor but most of the field to go around.

While a second line draw makes his task tough today, it probably won't be enough to stop Have Faith In Me (10), who looks the good thing for the day in race five. He paced his last mile in a wow-inducing 1:52.6 when recovering for second after breaking in his standing start comeback at Ashburton two weeks ago and has the potential to develop into the best pacer in Australasia. Victory today could see him tackle the big boys in the Free-For-All on Friday.

The first race, the traditional 3200m trot opener, sees Petite One (9) the TAB favourite but co-trainer Mark Purdon warns he rates Blackguard's Corner (5) a better chance. Clover Mac (8) looks great each way value after chasing Monbet home twice recently.

Some of the best value odds for the day could be those for Hickstead (R4, No6) as he is an in-form 3-year-old who can run handy to the speed, whereas some of the favourites are drawn poorly.

Benicio (2) might be talented enough to win race eight but his inexperience on such a big day in a 2600m standing start in front of the huge crowd make him one of the odds-on shots to steer away from.

And expect Motu Premier (R12, No15) to bounce back from a hoof bumper problem last start in the final race, where the Jewels runner-up can overcome a second line draw as they look likely to run hard early.