KEY POINTS:
Sufficient is the pressure horse in tomorrow's $100,000 Telecom Championship Stakes at Ellerslie.
He's under pressure to finish in the first four home or he misses a chance to run for the $2.2 million prizemoney of the Telecom New Zealand Derby in two weeks.
Sufficient currently sits as No 19 in order of entry for the 18-horse Derby field. The first four tomorrow are exempt from the Derby ballot - some say that's too liberal.
If Sufficient makes the first four, central districts-trained The Spaniard, currently sitting on No 18, will miss the field unless he also finishes top four tomorrow. The conditions make for a fascinating contest this time.
Heza Karma Karzi, Fears Nothing, Late Edition and Gallant are currently 20, 21, 22 and 23 respectively in order of entry.
It might be a slim chance, but if they dominat tomorrow's finish, the current Derby favourite Jungle Boots will miss a start. Which would certainly upset part-owner Gerrard Peterson.
Peterson queries how the other horse he part-owns, My Scotsgrey, can be rated so low as 73 after finishing second in the listed A$100,000 ($124,000) Geelong Derby Trial then seventh in the A$1.5 million Victoria Derby, won by Rebel Raider who had finished third to him at Geelong.
"Surely that should put him ahead in the ratings of a horse like Gallant that has won a maiden here then a one-win race." No, says chief handicapper Dean Nowell. "When he came back from Melbourne I assessed him at a 73 rating, which is very high for a one-win horse. "He got beaten in an $8000 race and there's no way I could rate him higher. The important thing to remember is that he has won only once."
My Scotsgrey won $34,000 for his Derby seventh on top of the $20,000 he won at Geelong and Dean Nowell said he does not believe in the principle of rating horses on stakemoney accumulated for finishing seventh.
Unlike tomorrow's race, which is worked solely on rating levels, the Derby order of entry is done on stakemoney. On that basis My Scotsgrey, with $60,22,0 is safely in the field.
"Perhaps the order of entry should be the same for both these races," says Nowell. Peterson has a possible second reason for wanting to see My Scotsgrey run in the Championship Stakes rather than the R90 2100m - the horse would be strongly fancied to finish top four, eliminating the risk to Jungle Boots dropping out of the Derby field. On current form, Sufficient should not only make the first four placings, he should go close to winning.
He looked devastating coming back from a lengthy break with a win over 1600m at Ellerslie and in his only start since he was beaten a half-head by the talented Mill Duckie.
The step to 2100m is what he's been looking for and he may even become the new Derby favourite with a stylish victory.
Le Baron raced well below his best when he came back from a month's break following his Guineas victory on Boxing Day. Co-trainer Donna Logan says Le Baron will be competitive, but the stable expects improvement in him heading towards the Derby. "He's progressing well," she said last night.
Stylish Waikato Guineas winner Easy Ryder is in the field simply to get his first look at Ellerslie, says co-trainer Roger James. "He doesn't need a run."
Easy Ryder has drawn an awkward outside gate and James said the horse will be ridden quietly early.
"If you ride them out from a wide draw in a race like this you run the risk of running off on that first bend going out of the straight, which would be a bad experience."
A very interesting runner is southerner The Meista.
An attempt was made to ride him back in the Waikato Guineas, which didn't work. He covered a huge amount of extra ground getting around the field to lead and did remarkably well to still finish second to Easy Ryder. He will almost certainly be ridden forward this time and without that extra ground covered could well get through for a win.
BIG PRIZE AHEAD
* Sufficient needs to run in the first four to guarantee a start in the $2.2 million Telecom Derby in two weeks
* Barring bad luck that looks very likely
* In a field that includes many of the Derby stars, Easy Ryder, Le Baron, The Meista and Australian Coniston Bluebird rate highly
