KEY POINTS:
There are a couple of useful chances if the track is suiting on-pace runners at Ellerslie this afternoon.
That is not to say playing the horses today looks easy.
But provided the footing is not "off" on the inside and the pattern is not heavily favouring the swoopers then Kristov and Tatlock should prove difficult to beat.
Just forget Kristov went around in the heavy stuff when only fifth at Rotorua two weeks ago. He was completely unable to do himself justice and will be a totally different horse on better footing this afternoon.
He will give the weight-for-age field, Race 6, something to think about. Sir Slick is starting to develop as racing's iron horse and he looks the threat again.
Tatlock (No5, R4) might not be an everyday horse, but he's smart. He has won only two races compared to some of the four-win and five-win types he meets today, but he has form around some very talented horses. He ran a very fast 1.8.73 1200m when winning at Matamata last start. He drew wide that time and comes out of gate No 1 here. Plenty of chances despite the small field, but watch for a bold fresh run from Ala Moana (No3).
Montecristo (No4, R2) looked smart in a couple of starts as a juvenile last season and was dead unlucky when blocked for a run coming back from a spell at Avondale on November 1. He's nicely drawn to get the right run this time.
After two good seconds in a couple of starts this preparation, Loaded Command (No8, R3) is set to break through for her first win. There are a couple of useful sorts in this, but the experience Loaded Command has had lately should help her in the closing stages.
Race 5 is an even line-up. Miss Monk (No6), to be ridden by Leith Innes, might make an impression fresh from a spell. She had a recent quiet trial and has drawn an important inside gate at the 1200m. She might be reasonable value each-way.
Post Thyme (No9, R7) is a serious filly. She showed that as a juvenile last season and was a tragedy beaten when resuming at Paeroa last time out. She needs plenty of space when she winds up her big finish and the smallish field should be an assist in that area. Matto Antonio (No3) is very good. Greeness beat him when mounting a huge finish at Riccarton last start and Opie Bosson had to sit up on him. That greenness plus having his first right-handed attempt here might count against him but don't leave him out, he's a horse to follow. Salperton (No1) should make the trifecta.
Young Centaur (No5, R8) is not far off a win. He hasn't won out of turn, but has looked a stayer of some promise. The step up to a middle distance today is the key and if there is a bit of yield in the track it will be ideal for him.
Have something on him and follow your money.
Speedalot (No4, R10) is heart attack material. She gets so far out of her ground you think you're dead in the water. The finish from last to win at Dargaville last time was spectacular, but as she rises in grade doing that becomes more difficult. She might need a pattern that reasonably favours back runners and if she gets it she's going to be difficult to beat. High Octane (No3) is smart and Falsetto (No1) last raced against Australia's best fillies in the autumn.
If the track comes up half reasonable, Bonjour should win the Wanganui Cup. He is really going places.
