The Chosen One wins the Manawatu Classic at Awapuni on Saturday. Photo / Race Images
It is hard to work out whether the chances of a New Zealand victory in this Saturday's A$2 million Australia Derby increased or decreased on a rollercoaster weekend.
But one thing for sure is the chances of Cambridge trainer Murray Baker extending his remarkable record in the race definitely improved.
Baker, more lately in partnership with Andrew Forsman, has an incredible record in the Sydney classic, having trained the winner four times in the past 11 years.
Until Saturday he wasn't sure he would have a starter this season but now he has one confirmed and another good enough to go, with D-day on whether they both make it today.
Madison County convinced his owners, the China Horse Club, to pay the A$44,000 late entry fee for the Derby with his huge second in the Tulloch at Rosehill, coming from well back and looking the winner at the 100m before his wide passage and the bottomless track took their toll.
He was also in contention for the Doncaster (1600m) on Saturday but will instead take on his own age group and while 2400m might be right at the end of his range, his run in a bog 2000m on Saturday suggests with the right passage he can run out the classic distance. "He has earned a start now and we are hoping Randwick will provide a better surface. It is a very different race to Rosehill, where they have to move earlier," says Baker.
Tommy Berry will ride Madison County and he joins Arrogant and Surely Sacred as confirmed Kiwi reps in the Derby but another three are undecided.
One of those is Madison County's stablemate The Chosen One, who was comprehensive winning the Manawatu Classic at Awapuni on Saturday.
He has always looked a genuine classic contender but luck deserted him in the Ellerslie three-year-old features and while the Derby would mean a quick transtasman turnaround, his owners are keen.
"They are only three once and his breeders, the Dennis brothers, keep telling me how his dam won twice over 2500m," laughs Baker.
"So he might still go, we will probably make a decision on Monday."
Also undecided but with different factors to consider are the connections of In A Twinkling and Platinum Invador, who were moderate when fifth and eighth respectively in the Tulloch.
In A Twinkling also needs that A$44,000 late payment to start in the Derby and trainer Jamie Richards will see how the son of Fastnet Rock is today before deciding his next move, with a race at Randwick on Saturday week and even a Queensland Derby campaign other options.
"Like a lot of horses I don't think he enjoyed the really heavy track on Saturday but he ate up on the night so he is still definitely a chance to start."
Trainer Lisa Latta also thought the Rosehill mud defeated Platinum Invador as much as his rivals but will have blood tests taken today before making her final decision on whether he starts this Saturday.
Unless those blood tests suggest he has had enough for the season Platinum Invador would seem a likely starter because he is already in Sydney and should be far better suited by the wide expanses of Randwick.
While there was no New Zealand-trained success at Rosehill there were plenty of smiling Kiwis around.
Rondinella thrilled co-trainer Roger James with a brave third in the Tancred Stakes, winning A$145,000 in the process.
"She hated the wet track but kept fighting and she will come home and spell," says James. "She has proved she is good enough for top Australian company now so we will set her for Melbourne in the spring."
Ardrossan was an equally courageous third for trainer Stephen Marsh in the Star Kingdom Stakes while Kiwi racing superstars Chris Waller (trainer) and James McDonald (jockey) both had trebles.
They combined with Verry Elleegant to win the Vinery and she is now the $2.50 favourite for the ATC Oaks while McDonald's effortless win on Avilius in the Tancred helped him win A$2.15m worth of races on Saturday.
Derby D-Day
•New Zealand could have as many as six starters or as few as three in Saturday's A$2 million Australian Derby.
•The decisions on The Chosen One, In A Twinkling and Platinum Invador could be made today.
•Madison County's owners will pay a A$44,000 late entry fee to get him into the classic.