Jim Gibbs believes the TAB has Kerry O'Reilly too short at $3.50 favourite for Sunday's $200,000 City of Auckland Cup.
The Matamata trainer says Kerry O'Reilly's real price should be $5 after his beaten effort in the Zabeel Classic at Ellerslie on Monday.
Kerry O'Reilly started a short-priced favourite in the Zabeel Classic and after getting back in running failed to make significant ground in the home straight and finished seventh, 3.3 lengths from the winner Bazelle.
There is a suggestion the band of heavy rain earlier in the day was responsible for the performance, which was in direct contrast to Kerry O'Reilly's winning performances in the Counties and Waikato Cups coming into the race.
But Gibbs is much more cautious than that, which is why he is often referred to as the master trainer.
You can understand if under such circumstances he takes his mind back to Kerry O'Reilly's career-worst performance when hot favourite for the St Leger at Trentham in the autumn.
Gibbs could come up with no excuse that day because he had been happy with Kerry O'Reilly going into that race, just as he had leading up to the Zabeel Classic.
Gibbs has monitored Kerry O'Reilly closely since Boxing Day.
"I can't find anything significantly wrong with him.
"He had a bit of a swim then he did some quiet work. When he came off the track he was bouncing and that's him.
"Cameron [Lammas] was happy with the way he felt."
But Gibbs feels the $3.50 may not be a fair quote for the public.
"There is a fair bit of form to come into the race.
"All Square won the Manawatu Cup, Kind Return finished second in the Zabeel Classic and drops something like 5kg into the Cup, then there's Partee, who was a close third to Kerry O'Reilly in the Waikato Cup.
"I know the ground was off a bit in the Zabeel Classic, but I'd liked to have seen just a little bit more from him."
Chief TAB odds-setter Paul Lally laughed when told of Gibbs' quote.
"Listen, before the Counties Cup, Jim came out on the front page of a weekly paper and called us weak for having Kerry O'Reilly at $2.50 favourite.
"Even at those odds we got very badly knocked over and, of course, the horse won. It was a very bad result for us.
"So I don't care what Jim thinks of the $3.50, it won't be going out any further - it's already a bad result if he wins.
"We had him at $3 for the Cup before the Zabeel Classic and we let the quote out slightly to $3.50 - that's the best you'll get."
Pretorius has been solidly supported into $5 for the Cup and the only other horse under $10 is All Square at $8.
Even before the all-important barrier draw, Baldessarini has been the medium of some huge punts for the $200,000 Railway on Sunday.
Baldessarini made mincemeat of Royal Entertainer a couple of weeks ago at Ellerslie and that form looked outstanding when Royal Entertainer won the lead-up Newmarket at Ellerslie on Monday.
"Punters just keep backing it," said Lally.
"It's by far our worst result."
Nothing means more than the barrier draw in the 1200m Railway and the TAB betting market might see a shake-up after the draw is done at 11am today.
Gibbs is keen to see it.
He has four runners, Devoted ($9), Vaalu ($13), Darcy Bee ($14) and previous winner Vinaka at $20.
"Surely I'll get one good draw out of the four," says Gibbs.
Racing: Kerry O'Reilly Cup price too short, Gibbs
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