If this was last year's contest of today's $120,000 Breeders Stakes, Justa Tad would be the $1.50 favourite.
At $4.25, Justa Tad is the clear favourite with the TAB, but this time it's different.
Justa Tad has not won a race in a year, having been trained out of Melbourne and worse, has developed a habit of pulling fiercely in her races.
The class New Zealand act from a year ago won the Oaks at Trentham after which she competed well at the autumn carnival in Sydney and attacked the Melbourne spring festival.
She raced well without standing on the podium and has been brought back to New Zealand by her owner and trainer Rudy Liefting for today's race and the Travis Stakes at Te Rapa.
Justa Tad last raced when 10th of 12 behind Roman Arch in the A$1 million Australian Cup at Flemington on March 11, in which she pulled very hard for Michael Walker.
"It was always on the cards that she was going to race too strongly for her own good this season," says Rudy Liefting's wife Megan, who accompanied the mare home.
Dropping back from 2000m to 1600m will assist Justa Tad to drop the bit and the stable believes a wet track will also be a help.
"For some reason she does not grab the bit in the wet," said Megan Liefting.
Rain is forecast for today, which should downgrade a surface that saw considerable rain earlier in the week.
This is one of the most open fields seen in New Zealand for months, something that is reflected in the wide spread of betting.
At $9 La Sizeranne and Viennetta ($8.50) were next best favourites yesterday and if you fancy horses like Haylee Baylee you are going to get a value $15 bet.
Salsa joins Justa Tad in having her first start back in New Zealand after being trained from Melbourne.
For David Bourne, Salsa won the A$150,000 Winter Championship at Flemington on May 28 last year and followed it up with another Flemington victory in July.
Both wins were on rain-affected surfaces and the prospect of a yielding surface this time will hold no fears for the O'Reilly mare.
Salsa's record on slow tracks in New Zealand before leaving for Melbourne is two starts for a win and a placing and is unbeaten in two appearances at Te Aroha.
The Central Districts holds a strong hand with Viennetta and Julinsky Princess to back up Mi Jubilee.
Brent Hrstich is not alarmed about the possibility of a soft track.
"She's had a series of wide barrier draws that haven't helped and she's drawn wide again, but this time, if the track is slow, then it will help her. She won on a bad soft track at Palmerston North as a 2-year-old."
Hrstich sent Julinsky Princess to Cambridge 10 days ago because the mare had been getting tight in her hindquarters and he wanted Cambridge-based chiropractor Baz Dowling to work on her.
"Lisa Cropp rode her in a gallop earlier this week and said she felt terrific."
Viennetta has won five of her eight starts and scored a nice win fresh from a break at New Plymouth recently. With a win from only two starts on a heavy track she is probably the one they all have to beat.
Racing: Justa drop of rain will do
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