It is almost a contradiction in terms, but the jumpers might be the safest bets at Te Rapa today.
Climbing High in the Waikato Steeples and High Season in the Hurdles look great chances given the track is likely to provide outstanding winter footing.
It's nearly a repeat of last year, when Climbing High (No 1, R6) won this race easily and High Season (No 3, R4) was second to Spirit Of Alaton in the Hurdles, a horse he meets 3kg better off this time.
Climbing High comes up quickly in his preparations, likes footing as firm as he can have it and ran the race of a real improver when second in the lead-up two weeks ago.
What beats him will win and Yourtheman (No 2) and Mali Juraj (No 6) look the two most likely if that's going to happen.
High Season is a veteran, but his win here a couple of weeks ago suggests he has lost nothing.
Richard Eynon, riding well, will be in the saddle and the combination makes a lot of appeal.
Appiel (No 4, R1) has looked good winning three in a row. Two of those were in the slow and the other on heavy footing, but the way she finishes her races with a big sprint suggests she might be just as good on a dead track. She's worth the risk if she can get a grip on this track. Sweet Suitor (No 1) is the obvious danger.
The juvenile race, Race 2, is interesting. On form, Elusive Red (No 1) deserves to be favourite, particularly with the 4kg Dicky Lui will take off her back. She looks the one to beat, but give consideration to the well-bred debut runner Zabinella (No 14), who has looked good at the barrier trials. She's drawn off a little, but she's got Opie Bosson to, hopefully, offset that.
So Pristine (No 5, R3) is a good stayer and should be greatly improved for her fine second to a top-drawer winning effort by Firebolt at Te Rapa first up. That was at 1600m and she will be much better suited to today's 2100m.
Gendarme (No 13, R5) might have beaten the very smart line-up in the race Worthing won at Te Rapa last start but for drawing wide. It meant he was the widest horse on the home bend, but he still kept coming and was only 1.2 lengths from the winner in fifth place. He has the No 2 barrier this time. There are a lot of chances in this race, among them stablemates Guessing (No 7) and Not Tonite (No 4).
Gendarme's stablemate Last Picasso (No 9, R7) was stylish when leaving maidens on this track a few weeks ago. She was the widest runner on the bend and powered to the finish. This is a reasonably strong field by comparison, but she is a filly of promise. Demophon (No 2) has looked good lately and that last-start victory was well deserved.
Chief Toroa (No 4, R8) really flew home over 1200m to be narrowly beaten at Ruakaka last start, suggesting the 1600m this time will be perfect. Tough maiden field this one. Visitor Supervisor (No 6) has drawn wide, but that doesn't always matter at the 1600m at Te Rapa and he deserves respect.
Trainer John Sargent believes Pure Cruising (No 5, R10) would be in open company by now but for leg problems. In terms of sheer ability it looked that way when he powered at the leaders from the 200m to win on this course recently. Despite very good depth in this field he rates again with Dicky Lui taking another 4kg off his weight. Geographer (No 14) is very smart and rates as a big danger.
Classy sprinter Rocket Man is going to give a great sight in tomorrow night's KrisFlyer Sprint in Singapore after his unlucky run in Hong Kong in December.
In the International Sprint in Hong Kong, Rocket Man's rider was carefully watching local hero Sacred Kingdom on his inside down the home straight at Sha Tin.
It was a clever-enough ploy, but South Africa's gun sprinter J J The Jetplane, on the outside, grabbed them both in the last stride.
The effort from Rocket Man was huge and he deserves to win this time. Glen Boss has the ride and he should suit the horse.
The leading Australian jockey's task is made easier by the recent breakdown of J J The Jetplane.
Mike de Kock, who trains in South Africa and Dubai, is tipping an improved effort by River Jetez tomorrow night.
"I'm very happy with her. She's much more relaxed than she was in Hong Kong," he said yesterday.
"For some reason, she never settled there [Hong Kong]. I think it's because she was all caged up and she is a claustrophobic mare.
"She had a nice canter on the Polytrack this morning and I was very happy with her work. That's it. If she's not fit enough, she'll never be fit."
Racing: Jumpers no hurdle to winning
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