Matimba (No 5) might be the upset chance, mainly because he has won on this track and can kick hard after leading. He will carry 5kg less than Ronchi, via the apprentice allowance for Anna Jones.
Quite a few good chances in the third, the 1600m maiden. Excalibur (No 7, R3) has been backed and beaten in each of his four starts, but he might finally have found the race for himself.
Last time, he ran in a strong 3-year-old race at Ellerslie and made ground strongly into fifth behind the talented Top Prospect.
That was 1500m and the extra distance, plus pitched against only maidens, he appeals for his first win. The form of Shine On (No 4) looks pretty ordinary, but he has good ability.
He drew a bad barrier at Ellerslie last start and Mark Hills had little option but to go forward on a day when to not do that prove detrimental.
It was against Shine On's emerging pattern of running on from the back and he faded. Ridden back this time he could be storming into it late. He has had just three races and is gradually learning.
Splendido (No 1) has had one start since returning from an Australian campaign and made a lot of ground over 1300m at Pukekohe. The 1600m this time will suit.
Race four might be a bit of a nightmare as a punting vehicle, but pay attention, because there are some really talented emerging types and plenty of summer winners will come from this field. Tavidream (No 9) is one of them and so are Irish Missile (No 12), Justacanta (No 5) and Time To Celebrate (No 1).
Tavidream's barrier trial win on his home Ruakaka track was stylish and he has drawn a perfect barrier for his debut. Irish Missile did well to cling on for third at Avondale after being posted three deep in mid-field without cover. He has drawn awkwardly, but, surely, luck couldn't be so badly against him again.
Justacanta's finish from the tail of the field into fifth on debut at Te Aroha was eye-catching. He is bound to have improved for that and on his home track appeals. Time To Celebrate has done nothing wrong, but has a horror barrier draw.
Opie Bosson has a job on his hands with Street Smart (No 7, R5) coming out of a wide gate at the Te Rapa 2100m.
Against that, Bosson got the smart emerging stayer home from the back of the field to win at Ellerslie last start and clearly the option here will be to drop back again.
If Street Smart gets a nice run through them from the 500m he can win again.
Richie McHorse (No 6) took a couple of starts to get into gear this campaign, but his past two have been good. He, too, will have to come from the back from an even wider barrier than Street Smart, but that's the way he races best.
Luck will play a huge part in this race. Verdi (No 8) is due and Banrock (No 9) had no luck at Ellerslie last start.
The open handicap, Race 6, is an odds-and-sods line-up. Cheeky Boy (No 5) has to be considered, even after his unplaced run in the Counties Cup last start.
Much of that form from the beaten runners can be discarded with the second half of the field unable to make ground from the back. This is a different type of race and much easier.
Southern Dancer (No 10) is a nightmare for punters. He won like Phar Lap at Te Awamutu and even though stepping up a grade he was disappointing here subsequently. That track was dead and maybe he needs it firm as it was at Te Awamutu. This race will tell.
Celebrity Miss (No 4) is right in it. She was forced to sit three wide at Ellerslie two weeks back.
Zacada (No 2, R7) has been producing strong staying efforts over 1600m and his step to 2100m will be interesting. Any horse's first middle distance run can be awkward and the wide gate here makes it slightly more difficult.
He looks like a no-nonsense type though and don't be surprised if he copes.
Clarify (No 3) has been going better races than his form on paper suggests and from a nice gate can be right in this. Inastride (No 9) is the big improver and Road Trip (No 5) can go on with it now he has broken through.
Just about anything can win the last. If you fancy something then back it. Red Tsunami (No 10, R8) has the best lead-up form. She won at long odds here when resuming, then finished third to Coldplay in a strong race at Ellerslie and her last-start fourth was in the Breeders Stakes at Pukekohe. She is entitled to be hard to beat.
Swinging Skirts (No 16) looks better than useful and Bamurra (No 17) needs a bit of luck.
Chocante (No 3, R6) has only to re-produce his Counties Cup victory performance to go close in the $100,000 Manawatu Cup at Awapuni. He has drawn perfectly and is up to most of these. Five To Midnight (No 4) will be a leading opponent on his home track and Endeavour (No 7) is a real chance on 53.5kg.
Mighty Solomon (No 4, R7) and Ringo (No 2) look the main chances in the Manawatu Challenge Stakes.
