KEY POINTS:
If luck isn't the deciding factor in horse racing, you want as much as you can get of whatever is.
Sharvasti would have gone close to winning Saturday's Counties Cup if she hadn't late-scratched after pulling a plate and cutting a foot in the float on the way to Ellerslie.
Ntamack would have won the Cup if he hadn't inexplicably suddenly turned left when about to dash to the front, 120m off the finish.
And top-ranked newcomer Chettak copped a lucky inside run in the closing stages to take the group-two feature.
Which is not to detract from the clever ride by Lisa Cropp on the winner, or the fact that Chettak is a coming serious racehorse.
Sharvasti's trainer, John Sargent, had particular reason to reflect on his luck when he went to his car mid-meeting to discover it had been broken into and that the perpetrators had already clocked up more than $2000 on his credit card.
One of Chettak's numerous syndicate owners, Peter McDougall, reviewed his luck from a different perspective - he has had winners five of the last six times he has had runners. That seriously contradicts racing's fortunes and if it continues they'll write books about it.
But the "what-ifs" do not mean the form should be ignored.
Chettak can be followed, but it might not be for a while - 26-year-old trainer Stephen Marsh's first impression after Saturday's race was that he might ease Chettak and revert to shorter races like the 1600m group one Thorndon Mile at Trentham in late January.
"I'm not going to plan a race right now," he said.
"I'm going to go home, have a few drinks and think about it.
"I could give him one more and spell him, or I could spell him right now and race him fresh in the Thorndon.
"I think's there's still a very good [metric] mile in the horse."
Marsh is adamant Chettak has a lot of improvement yet to come.
"He's a lot stronger than he was, but he'll get stronger again.
"He went really well in the Derby lead-up last season, but he'd trained off by the time the Derby came around and finished third-last. He'll keep getting better."
Ritzy Lady would have capped off one of the great racedays for trainer Roger James and made it four for the programme if she'd won and her close second suggests encouraging staying potential.
But probably the lasting memory of the Cup was the phenomenal effort of Cameron Lammas to stay in the saddle when Ntamack violently ducked sideways just as he was about to claim Chettak and Ritzy Lady.
A movement so sudden would have had 39 out of 40 jockeys immediately over the side and on the ground.
Photographer Trish Dunell's image shows Lammas' left foot back behind and further to his right than his right foot, which should have had his point of balance way beyond the point of being able to retrieve the situation.
Lammas, one of racing's modest heroes, quietly accepted the congratulations on his performance.
"To be honest, I closed my eyes and waited for the pain - I was certain I was gone," he said.
"When I opened my eyes I was still in the saddle and I looked up and thought: 'We can still run third here', so I gave him a couple behind the saddle."
That quick thinking, just as admirable as getting back into the saddle, retrieved something for Ntamack's luckless owners.
There was no $78,125 winner's cheque but there was at least $12,500 for third and a $4.80 place dividend - which brings us back to luck.
One of the syndicate owners, Bob McAuley, has been known to open his shoulders at the tote and had been backing Ntamack at long odds in the Counties Cup since the TAB opened fixed-odds betting.
McAuley had several large all-up bets ending with Ntamack to win on Saturday and a large this-and-the-next double with Ceejay in the previous Ellerslie race.
He could only smile away his intense frustration as he watched his horse come back to the birdcage.
"Life's full of those sort of incidents - I think it's called luck."
