The horses that improve the most between ages two and three are the horses to follow in the spring.
History might tell us that Jimmy Choux was that horse this year.
The last 150m of today's $85,000 Hawkes Bay Guineas will decide whether that is accurate.
You just had to like the way Jimmy Choux powered to the finish to be beaten narrowly in the Wanganui Guineas. Trainer John Bary says the horse has continued to thrive and forge ahead, which will make him difficult to handle today.
First-up filly We Can Say It Now has enormous ability and should be included and Cellarmaster is capable of winning. The lack of rain in the area on Thursday night should mean a perfect track today, which will bring the class out.
Two horses from the same establishment, but prepared by different trainers, could dominate the first. Nightime Jockey (No8, R1), trained by Shaune Ritchie, is a rapid improver and so is Showcause (No6), prepared by father Frank Ritchie. Showcause is a talented stayer who has had plenty go wrong in the past two years. His two runs back this time will have him fit for this. Nightime Jockey has had only the one run since a spell, but he's shown that's all he requires. Watch both.
No Cash (No4, R2) has clocked up nine second placings, four of them in his last five runs. That has to end and it could be today. He has been running around on wet tracks lately and doing well, which is no surprise to most because the stock of his sire D'Cash love the mud.
But No Cash's best form has actually been on firm footing and he's going to get that today. Backup (No5) looked the improver in getting home strongly into third last start at 2000m. The 2200m today suits.
Veronica Franco (No8, R3) has been carefully managed by Roger James and has had only 10 race starts. With one run back since spelling she is well placed today to put her hoof in the cash register. She got home strongly over 1400m when resuming and today's 1600m is much more suitable. I Robot (No6) is a danger and don't be surprised if Dutch Striker (No4) gets into the finish somewhere at big odds.
Race 4 looks a terrific betting affair. Bone Of Contention (No4) has had only the seven runs, but at times has looked very talented. He tends to get back in running, which will throw in the potential for danger in this big field, but he can really storm home when he gets a clear passage. He hasn't raced since February, but is the type to race well when fresh.
Sam's Town (No9, R7) and Aspinal (No10) are likely to feature here.
Aspinal would probably have won when resuming at Taupo had she been able to work into the clear earlier than the last 100m. This looks her sort of race and with a nice 53.5kg and a decent draw she looks well placed. Sam's Town wasn't knocked around in his barrier trial five weeks ago and is the type to go well when fresh.
You've probably got to stay with Wall Street (No2, R8) in the big race, the Spring Classic. The first try at 2040m shouldn't be an issue and even if the wide barrier is, Michael Coleman is clever enough and knows the horse so well now that he will provide big assistance.
Difficult to do a speed map on the race with Wall Street and Vosne Romanee (No1) drawing the outside gates. The run Opie Bosson is able to provide Vosne Romanee will decide his chances.
Don't leave out Ginga Dude (No3). He should have won this race last year and mysteriously for a horse that's won $622,000 he's always underrated. Keep The Peace (No13) is in there with a huge chance again. This will be a luck race.
You almost certainly have to give Katie Lee (No11, R9) another chance.
The Ruakaka track didn't suit last start and she will be improved fitness wise. The 52.5kg gives her a big chance. Spare a Fortune (No3) and She Rules (No9) are tough opponents and Veloz (No4) is the quick improver.
Racing: Jimmy Choux shows promise
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