KEY POINTS:
After the greatest career in our harness racing history you would think Tony Herlihy might have some idea what to expect in the elite races.
And so did he - until about six weeks ago.
Herlihy has won over 2600 races, more than any horseman in any racing code in this country and has three realistic winning chances at today's $1.5 million Harness Jewels meeting at Cambridge.
Two of them, Alexis and Running On Time, will need luck from second-line draws and provide punters with each-way value.
The other is Gotta Go Cullen, the favourite in the race of the day as he clashes for the fifth time this campaign with arch-rival Changeover.
So far the honours are shared two-all this autumn but Herlihy admits the unpredictability of the results between the pair is hard to fathom.
"After the last couple of months I am reluctant to say what is going to happen this time," said Herlihy.
"They are both great horses and they have probably won when some people didn't expect them to."
While fitness and tactics were key factors in their early clashes this campaign, it was Changeover's swamping of Gotta Go Cullen in a paltry $10,000 four-horse race last start that left the greatness impression.
After leading it was a race Gotta Go Cullen couldn't lose. He did and while Herlihy isn't saying so there is no doubt it dented his pre-Jewels confidence.
But his morale received a boost at the Cambridge workouts last Saturday when Gotta Go Cullen led and easily held out Changeover, the winner for once overcoming his habit of skylarking inside the final 200m when in front.
"I felt better after that," admits Herlihy.
"He found the line well last Saturday and to be honest, it makes me think it may have been my fault he got beaten last start.
"We weren't sure that race was going to get off the ground so maybe he was underdone got it.
"He will definitely be fitter for this race than he was last start," he says, in what is close to fighting talk for the mild-mannered Iceman.
The $200,000 feature has slowly changed complexion during the week as three second-line horses have been scratched.
That means only two horses will start off the second line and gives Changeover's driver, David Butcher, the option of quickly pulling back from barrier eight and sliding across to be three-wide in midfield.
Such a move, easily achievable with fewer horses in his way, means Changeover may not have to cover lengths more than Gotta Go Cullen.
Herlihy says he can't think about that, or where Changeover is going to be.
"We will be going forward because he likes to come off the gate fast and I expect to be in front. If Changeover can beat us then, he deserves to win."
While Herlihy will be hoping for a soft early section to that race he is hoping for the opposite in the three-year-old trot (Running On Time) and the juvenile fillies' pace (Alexis).
Running On Time has been a revelation this autumn and can beat local hero Sovereignty if he lands in front of him during the early rush.
Following out a fast beginner in Real Deal Yankee makes that possible.
"He is very well and I think he can win but I have a lot of respect for Sovereignty. The start is going to be crucial there."
Alexis won't be a factor early in her $200,000 dash for cash as she starts from the outside of the second line in a race with plenty of early speed and wannabe leaders.
"It looks like it could be a hard race early and that is our best chance.
"I think she can win it but she will need luck because following the wrong horse forward could leave you with no chance."
Herlihy, who has driven more winners at Cambridge than any other reinsman, says luck will play a huge part in the chances of horses drawn the second line today.
"I can see there being a three-wide train by the 800m mark in most of the race and if you are in the right spot then maybe you can win coming wide.
"But for that to happen you are going to need pressure on the leaders and to be following the right horse.
"Being even one horse further back than you want could mean you have no chance."
If anybody is likely to be in that right place, it is Tony Herlihy.
RACE FACTS
Where: Cambridge Raceway.
What: Nine races worth a total of $1.5 million.
When: Gates open 10am today; first race at 12.10pm.
Watch: Trackside TV from 9am; TV3 4pm-4.30pm.
Who: 105 of the best young harness horses in New Zealand.
The track: 1000m with passing lane. Short straight but well-banked bends. Heavy bias toward leaders and horse in the trail.
The races: All 1609m, with eight horses off the front line (before ballots come out). Short run to first bend.
Doubling up: Lizzie Maguire (R3), Changeover (R6) and Springbank Richard (R7) are all striving to become dual Jewels winners.
The punt: $250,000 terminating Pick6; final field fixed odds on every race.
