KEY POINTS:
MELBOURNE - When Japanese runner Eye Popper finished 12th in last year's Melbourne Cup connections didn't realise the whole of Australia would judge it as an important form guide to the 2006 Cup.
Eye Popper is not even in Australia, but no one can forget he ran 12th last year.
He started at $6, only marginally shorter than Makybe Diva, after being just beaten and looking unlucky in the Caulfield Cup.
This year the two Japanese runners, Pop Rock and Delta Blues, impressed greatly in finishing a close seventh and third in the Caulfield Cup.
They were enormous Melbourne Cup trials, but most Australians won't have a bar of them today because they have latched on to the popular theory that Japanese horses look good one day, but don't back up.
It might prove costly to think that way.
Sure, Eye Popper did it, but he had a gutbuster in the Caulfield Cup.
Pop Rock was ridden by Damien Oliver, not a Japanese jockey, in the Caulfield Cup and Oliver made sure the horse came out of the race in the same condition in which he went into it.
Because of a lack of racing room directly ahead at Caulfield, Pop Rock had what is affectionately referred to as a soft run.
That is almost certain to be a major factor if Pop Rock turns Eye Popper's form around today.
Oliver, as good a judge as there is astride a horse, has been doing all the work aboard Pop Rock at Sandown and is very bullish about the horse's chances today.
The Japanese team has not given much away this year in Melbourne, but they surprised most at the international press conference on Sunday morning by declaring Pop Rock as their pick of the pair for today, despite the third and seventh placings at Caulfield.
At the press conference trainer Katsuhilo Sumii said through stable manager and interpreter Keita Tanaka that they had a "small concern" that Delta Blues will be ridden by Japanese rider Yasunari Iwata, who has not ridden in Australia.
That is a much bigger concern for form analysts, especially when you consider Oliver is on the stablemate.
Bookies have Pop Rock at $7.50 and Delta Blues on $11 and most Australians, given the circumstances, would have the gap wider.
Interestingly, Delta Blues is the better performed in his home country, but on their respective work since being in Australia, Pop Rock looks by far the more serious racehorse.
English trainer Jamie Osborne is happy to tell anyone that he thinks his horse Geordieland is a strong chance to win the race if Irish runner Yeats turns up with his B game, as he has a few times.
But Osborne admits he's having a saving dollar on Pop Rock.
"I watched him work yesterday [Saturday] and he was terrific," he said after Sunday's press conference.
The greatest endorsement of all comes from Oliver, who knows his way to the winning post in Melbourne Cups.
The last time he was successful was on Irish runner Media Puzzle in 2002, who like Pop Rock went into the race on the back of a strong performance, namely a win in the Geelong Cup.
"Pop Rock gives me as good a feel as Media Puzzle and although he is not a group one winner, he gives me the feel of a group one horse."
If you're thinking straight, that thought overrides Eye Popper's performance.
