KEY POINTS:
Finishing last in a lead-up race doesn't generally fill you with confidence about a horse's chances.
With Jacob at Avondale today it shouldn't matter.
Jacob was off the track most of the way in the $70,000 NZ Herald Eclipse Stakes at Ellerslie on January 1 and rider Chris Johnson eased him out of the race in the closing stages when the task looked impossible.
He had been a gallant winner on the first day of the carnival on Boxing Day and looks a tough, if not brilliant youngster.
Tasha Collett will pull 3kg off Jacob's 59kg, putting him at a competitive level today. Keepa Cruisin won well enough on debut to suggest she can get some of this if her outside gate does not hamper too severely.
Little Jess is in two races and the easiest option looks to be race two. She has had a chance to freshen since her second to Shinko Bay on a dead track at Tauranga on January 2 and should be better suited here with a 3kg claim, taking her down to 1.5kg below the minimum. The Stephen McKee runners Captivate (No4) and Sandboy (No5) are trifecta musts.
The Collett/Hapeta stable has North Hill engaged in races three and four and he'll be difficult to contain in whichever he starts in. He looked promising on debut last season and was impressive winning a recent barrier trial under a hold at Pukekohe.
Rhomale (No11, R6), a Redoute's Choice colt with Roger James, was a costly failure when beaten favourite on debut back in October. The track was dead that day and he may not have appreciated the conditions. He caught the eye winning a Pukekohe barrier trial by 3.25 lengths in mid-January and can make amends today.
Irish Opera (No9) has had no luck in his last two starts and Lisa Cropp could get him into the money at useful odds.
Sir Fortriss (No1, R7) might be good, but he had a couple of things he couldn't overcome when beaten favourite in fourth place last start. The soft track that day was right against the big-striding type and it was his first attempt in only four race starts at a middle distance. His effort was a long way from being disappointing and the talent he showed in his previous racing should emerge this afternoon.
Grane Ballare (No10) was stunning in winning on debut and did not appear to appreciate the dead surface when subsequently beaten at Ellerslie. She looks a filly of substantial talent, which she should re-confirm today.
As a back runner Midnight Prince (No2) makes it difficult for himself, but he is talented and needs only a change of luck to be right in it here.
Tachus (No3, R3) is underrated and definitely a bit better than his fifth on this track last start suggests. A similar effort to the one he turned in to finish third to The Foreman at Te Rapa two starts back would just about be good enough to get him home in this.
Cadillac (No5) can't go a bad race, Little Jess (No1) is a real chance if she starts here instead of race two and Tadan (No4) has covered ground in two starts this preparation and looks the value runner. A 4kg apprentice allowance is a big assist.
Sila Jasak (No7, R9) is due to quit maidens quickly, but has a wide barrier and a talented first starter to get past in Bagalollies (No9) to get by.
Bagalollies is a Zabeel filly with Roger James who won a barrier trial nicely on January 9. From an inside gate she might make it difficult for Sila Jasak.
Labanese Lawn (No3, R10) deserves a winning turn. She was caught in the last stride here two starts back then narrowly beaten by a fairly talented type in I Can Sing at Tauranga. For a leader she has drawn a fraction wider than you would like to see, but she has plenty of speed to get across.
Roger James' pair Perle Noire (No14) and Didee Blue (No13) are worth a look. Perle Noir didn't get the best of runs when only 11th behind He Kin Danske at Manawatu last start.
