KEY POINTS:
Geoff Small doesn't hesitate when asked the most decisive question heading into today's $1.2 million New Zealand Trotting Cup at Addington.
Because the answer is simply and definitively "yes" - Changeover is a much better horse than on this day last year.
And that could, and maybe even should, be enough for him to win our richest harness race.
Changeover has looked destined for greatness for three years and gets his best ever chance to grab it at 5.15pm today.
He has the right draw in the right race and carries fewer doubts over his standing start manners than his key rivals.
And of course, today he doesn't have to face champions Auckland Reactor or Blacks A Fake, who will provide much higher mountains to climb for the rest of the season.
Changeover finds himself in virtually the same field as when he started favourite in last season's New Zealand Cup.
On that occasion he was a luckless fourth behind a phenomenal Flashing Red. That great old warrior won't be there today but he is replaced by Changeover's arch-rival Gotta Go Cullen.
Apart from that these are mainly the same horses Changeover could have beaten last season. But this is not the same old Changeover.
He went into last season's Cup on the back of a morale-sapping thrashing in the Ashburton Flying Stakes, one that exhausted him so much he missed the Cup trial a week later.
In the Cup he was a hurting teenage boy taking on grown men and wasn't strong enough to overcome momentum lost on the home bend.
Today is he is not hurting. He is stronger. He is ready.
"There is no doubt he is a better horse than last season," said Small, not one for grandiose statements, especially now when so many in the media aren't his greatest fans.
"Last season we had some hiccups going into this race and I think he did a huge job to still pace 3.59.
"But he is a different horse now. He is bigger, stronger, mentally more mature.
"And he is a happy horse. We will not have any excuses."
Small admits anything less than a victory will not be good enough.
"To be a great horse you have to stand up in the best races," says the man who trained our richest pacer, Elsu.
"He has got his chance to do that now and it is up to him. He is ready to do it."
So happy is Small with Changeover he cancelled a planned trip to Addington on Sunday to fast work him with fellow Cup-bound stablemates Awesome Armbro and Zenad.
"I looked at him Saturday night and realised he didn't need it. He was spot on."
Small's confidence going into today's 3200m war is based more around his appraisal of Changeover's form than the race itself.
He knows the big three of Monkey King, Baileys Dream and Gotta Go Cullen can all beat Changeover if things go their way.
"Or if we have to work too hard. They are all top horses and you don't want them stalking you if you do too much work. And Tim Butt has three in the race, and he knows how to win this race. They don't just give the Cup away."
Of the threats Monkey King looms largest because he is simply faster than Changeover.
But he could also end up being 10 lengths behind him early, without too many obvious stayers to pressure the leaders.
Monkey King's problem isn't whether he is good enough to win today, it is whether he gets close enough, cheaply enough to do so.
Baileys Dream's Ashburton Flying Stakes win confirms he is in the best form of his life and he looks an ideal each-way chance, while Gotta Go Cullen is the cross-your-fingers bet.
He is a great stayer and has matured into a wonderful beast but his standing starts fluctuate wildly between electrifying and catastrophic.
Barrier two could be a disaster for the big stallion, particularly if he has to stand there for too long. But with a good beginning he instantly becomes the best value in the race.
Tribute and Report For Duty look the only other winning chances, having the right combination of manners, staying ability and horsemanship.
