Racing: It's Muchacho hard to work out this pacer

Mi Muchacho has won 13 of his 21 races at Alexandra Park. Phil Walter / Getty Images

The most confusing pacer in New Zealand is back in tonight's Spring Cup at Alexandra Park.

But whether you should back him or not is almost impossible to say with any certainty.

Mi Muchacho returns to his favourite track in the $20,000 event, the first open class test of the northern pacing season.

On record alone the gutsy grey pacer with the massive heart would simply be too good for his rivals, especially as the 2200m standing start conditions suit.

And his chances of winning his comeback race have been boosted enormously by the scratchings with injury this week of Alta Serena and Myron.

Alta Serena fractured a pedal bone this week while Myron, who was so impressive winning his return to racing last Friday, was ruled out with injury yesterday.

Both injuries put the outstanding pacers in doubt for November's New Zealand Cup.

Their absence greatly increases the chances of a winning return to the track for Mi Muchacho, even though his trainer Richard Anderson admits he is not sure what to expect for his superstar.

Unlike most top horses Mi Muchacho rarely trials in public and heads into tonight's race without an official workout this campaign.

In fact the fastest he has worked this season is 3:8 for 2400m with a galloping pacemaker at Cambridge last Friday, which any handy two-win horse could do.

And don't bother asking Anderson whether he can win, because the veteran trainer is too modest to suggest a comeback victory.

"I've tried predicting whether he was ready or not in the past and I've been wrong," he admits. "He surprises me at times because I think he takes the next step on race night.

"But the one thing I would say is that he is a year older and maybe not as good as when he won this race last season. So I'd be happy to see him finish in the first four."

Anderson might be happy with that sort of start to the season but it is doubtful Mi Muchacho will be.

The 6-year-old is a natural fighter and in the absence of any definitive proof of how ready he is the best way to analyse his chances is to simply look at his Alexandra Park record.

Even in a career when he has been troubled with soreness he has won 13 of his 21 races at Alexandra Park, with six placings. And he has rarely, if ever, been beaten fair and square on this track when pain free.

With his usually reliable standing start manners he should settle no worse than midfield tonight and that makes him hard to hold out, even if he is equally hard to back with any great confidence.

His presence in the field will help boost the odds for the rapidly-shrinking host of winning chances, headed by Baileys Dream and Napoleon.

Napoleon loves 2200m racing at Alexandra Park and has looked sharp enough at the workouts recently to be the value each-way option.

"I am happy with the way he has come up and he could win it if things went perfectly for him," said trainer Barry Purdon.

Baileys Dream finished last season looking as if his mind was starting to catch up with his body and with a fast beginning he will be very hard to beat, with Todd Mitchell opting for him as his best drive of the week.