Racing: Hurricane Mickey likes Rotorua mud

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Racing stats don't tell you everything, but in Hurricane Mickey's case at Rotorua today they get pretty close.

The greatest certainty today is that Rotorua will be heavy and testing, which is Hurricane Mickey's territory. In 12 starts in the heavy the Cambridge mudder has scored six wins and five placings - few in the country can claim statistics like that.

There was a lot to like about Hurricane Mickey's first-up third to Nicole Amy and Cent Per Cent at Tauranga last month and he should now be sharper for that.

He has a slightly better opponent this time in Spare A Fortune, who can handle all types of going, but as good as he is, with his 59kg topweight (Hurricane Mickey 57.5kg) you just prefer the other horse in the deep mud.

Race 1 is tricky despite the small field. Even allowing for his 58kg topweight Affaire D'Honneur (No 1) is probably the way to go. He won two starts back on this course, albeit on better footing than he's going to strike here. Acapela (No 2) showed she can probably handle most tracks when she finished third in the heavy at Ellerslie last start.

There are a few chances in another small line-up in Race 2, but Sum Up (No 4) looks well placed. He has been fighting hard at the end of his 1600m races, should suit the step up to 1950m and handles wet ground well. He is positioned nicely on 55kg and no one is riding better than Chad Ormsby right now. Hot And Black (No 3) could be the value. She tackled stakes class last start and got no luck at all. She drops well back in grades for this.

The 4kg Hong Kong apprentice Dicky Lui takes off the back of Dollario (No 1, R3) today will be the equivalent of two concrete blocks in the home straight.

He got to the finish strongly to win at Tauranga last start and the 55kg puts him in the frame again.

Matimba (No 2) is the runner Dollario got past late to score at Tauranga and he meets Dollario 1kg better this time.

Letmeby (No 4, R4) made something of an impression when third at Te Aroha on debut.

Not everything went his way that day and he appeals this time. Carlotta (No 14) didn't go unnoticed when fifth on debut and should be better for that run.

Tai Chi Queen (No 2, R7) didn't finish off when fourth behind Mae Jinx at Hastings last start, but the race was not run to suit her and this field is not quite as strong.

A little doubt about the very testing ground for her, but trainer Mike Breslin wouldn't be tripping north if he didn't think she'd manage. Abbey Tralae (No 4) wasn't far away in a stronger field at Te Rapa last start and appeals a lot here for a multiple bet anchor.

The wetter the better for Matost (No 1, R9).

He really impressed when third at Tauranga in his first start back from a decent break and should now be ready to put a score on the board. The Jungle Boy (No 8) can put value in all bet types.

He will be better when he gets up further than today's 1400m, but he's nice and fresh and should run a race at odds.