This is a million-to-one chance - the original favourites in today's $33,500 Dunstan Feeds Waikato Hurdles all want decent footing.
More than 24 hours of rain has thrown that out the window.
The connections of High Season, Yourtheman and Kidunot were all hoping for a decent track.
That wish list
disappeared halfway through Thursday night when it barely stopped raining.
The saviour is that Te Rapa does not get to the heavy state it used to and to the degree most other tracks get to when it rains. Course manager Neil Treweek said last night that today's official rating would depend on what level of rain fell last night.
"I did a reading at 4pm and it came up a slow 9. It's kept raining reasonably lightly since then and if that was to continue through the night we'd have a heavy 10 for the races."
Mercifully the forecast was for clearing weather overnight.
Which leaves the predictions for the Waikato Hurdles a little up in the air.
Gore-trained Kidunot is the most likely to be affected by the slow or heavy track today.
"He doesn't really like anything worse than dead footing," trainer Ellis Winsloe told the Herald on Thursday.
Kidunot has not won on slow or heavy ground in 15 starts, which leaves him very vulnerable this afternoon.
Probably the least vulnerable of the top three in the handicap mentioned above will be joint topweight High Season. "He's okay until it gets too heavy, then he doesn't like it," says owner and trainer John Wheeler.
The official rating, if not heavy, will be on the cusp of heavy this morning, but Te Rapa being just heavy is two or three gradients back from most tracks.
High Season is more likely to cope than not, even if a firmer track would have been preferable.
Yourtheman is in the same category. What will help him is that he comes into this race fitter than recent years, even though he won it two years ago. Last start he won a maiden steeplechase at his first attempt at the bigger fences and that 4100m sets him up nicely for this.
The one that will appreciate the footing is last year's winner Spirit Of Alaton. He ran a useful race for third on the flat at New Plymouth last start.
Tough race, but High Season each way might be the go.
