KEY POINTS:
Seachange will almost certainly start at Hastings on Thursday.
That was the indication last night as ownership manager Rick Williams pondered the mare's options between Hastings and Ruakaka on Saturday with Cambridge trainer Ralph Manning.
The worry has always been track conditions and the need to avoid a desperately hard first-up run in tough wet conditions.
Williams settled on Hastings rather than Ruakaka, which almost always provides the north's best winter conditions, after talking with Hastings trainer Guy Lowry.
"Guy said that although they had rain last night the Hastings track is rated at 4.3.
"That suggests it could be under 4.0 on Thursday."
The forecast for Hawkes Bay is reasonably bright for the next few days and Hastings is a track that can improve faster than most at this time of year given the right conditions.
"Unless the track there gets a lot worse we're pretty sure it'll be Hastings," said Williams.
"It's 200m less than Ruakaka (1200m v 1400m), which is good for a first-up run and we wouldn't be able to claim an allowance at Ruakaka.
"The other factor is that it's the second day of a two-day meeting at Ruakaka and we don't want to take any chances."
Cambridge apprentice Jayne Ivil will claim 3kg off Seachange's handicap.
The field opposing Seachange is stunning.
The race is worth a modest $14,000, but it fits in nicely as a lead-up to the $60,000 weight-for-age Foxbridge Plate (1400m) at Te Rapa on August 18 and the lead-ins to the massive Hastings spring treble.
Outstanding fillies from last season Princess Coup and Veloce Bella are down to resume and so is one of the country's rising stars, High Octane.
High Octane made a big impression when he won at last Tuesday's Te Awamutu trials and Princess Coup was hardly less impressive in finishing second.
Both looked as though they would derive a lot of benefit from the outing.
High Octane will be ridden by Lisa Cropp and apprentice Sam Collett will claim on Princess Coup.
The trio face a more seasoned Bulginbaah and Dav And Ming, a stylish first-up winner in New Zealand for trainer Chris McNab.
A significant payment is due tomorrow for the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes and the connections of Miss Finland and Pompeii Ruler have asked to be left in contention.
* New Zealand trainer Mike Moroney will hold back on giving champion Xcellent a barrier trial until the middle of next month to give him his best possible chance of being ready for the Mudgway Stakes at Hastings in September.
Moroney said he had planned to trial the four-time group one winner at Te Teko on August 7 but will now most likely reserve him for the Taupo trials.
"We were going to barrier trial next week but might wait for Taupo, which is about 10 days later."
He said Xcellent had returned from a short break after finishing 18th of 20 runners in Brisbane's group one Stradbroke Hcp (1400m) on June 6, which was his first run since finishing third to Makybe Diva in the 2005 Melbourne Cup.
Moroney said circumstances went against Xcellent in the Stradbroke but the bottom line was he wasn't fit enough. Tendon problems have plagued Xcellent who has raced just nine times for his six wins.
