Racing: Hot combo offers rare quinella tip

Kerry O'Reilly (with Michael Coleman on board) has impressive form. Picture / Dean Purcell

Quinella results in major staying events are never easy, but the Kerry O'Reilly-Filante Etoile combo looks pretty hot for today's $100,0000 Waikato Gold Cup.

That's provided the predicted overnight rain did not amount to much.

It's difficult to go past one of these two winning the Cup, although horses such as Lord Asterix and classy topweight El Duce might prove troublesome.

Counties Cup winner Kerry O'Reilly has the impressive form and Filante Etoile's 6255 formline tells nothing like the true story.

She was almost a good thing beaten in the Avondale Cup last start and trainer Richard Yuill believes the mare is in better shape for this. The 2400m should be no barrier to the classy mare and it's a distance Kerry O'Reilly has been looking for despite his last two winning runs.

Take a chance on the quinella result with the two favourites.

Common sense tells you Devoted (No1, R9) should win the sprint. Forget that he went around in the Concorde at Avondale - he missed the start and was never a chance with the brilliant Run Like The Wind living up to his name out in front.

He has top jock Leith Innes climbing aboard today, but the advantages don't end there. He is racing like the extra 200m of today's 1400m will suit him perfectly and the fact that there will be considerably more give in the Te Rapa footing today than there was at Avondale will definitely be to his advantage. For all that Rockabubble (No2) might be a niggling worry. Trainer Tony Cole believes there is considerable improvement to come from the big mare from what will be her season debut effort, but she represents such great class that she might produce something special fresh at 1400m. Rockabubble is not that well off in the weights compared to Devoted. She gets only .5kg off him and if you take the sex allowance into account, she is in real terms carrying more. La Sizeranne (No4) is a safe bet for a slot in the trifecta and Tadan (No9) is the upsetter if the track is firm.

The first race is interesting, with no standout performer. Tatlock (No5) has had a bit more than a couple of weeks to freshen from failing to see out the 1600m of the Levin Classic behind Wahid. He is more of a speed horse and might be tough to pull back at 1200m here. Lisa Cropp is the perfect rider to take advantage of the No 2 gate.

It's a shame Pentazia (No4, R2) has drawn wide, but then so have all the other main chances in the race and it might cancel itself out. Pentazia is one of the sprinting finds and only has to get over close to the rail early and reproduce one of her recent winning efforts to go close to making it a winning treble.

You can't get rich on Don Garcia (No1, R3) or Alonzo (No1, R4), but there is a treble on races 2-3-4. Maybe an all-up bet to go into one of your stronger fancies later on the programme - both should win. Don Garcia is simply a class animal and if you needed a further push for Alonzo other than his great level of talent, what about his three-from-three at Te Rapa.

The $60,000 Gasmate Stakes should see Bridie Belle (No 2, R5) come back to winning form. She was a close fourth behind Sedecrem in a strong weight-for-age field at Ellerslie last start and drops back to her own sex for this race. She is a course winner and with footing that is likely to be slightly yielding she gets all the favours. Don't underestimate Focal Point (No6), who is stepping up in class and don't drop Rosetti Bay (No10) for her one failure at Ellerslie last start. That was totally out of character.

Aeroforce One (No3, R6) and Prangelica (No2) attack this race from different perspectives. Aeroforce One is about to hit his form and Prangelica is to be spelled after the race.

Aeroforce One looked a real emerging stayer last preparation. He will be a lot fitter for his two runs this time in and will be ideally suited to the 2400m. You can follow him from this point.

Prangelica has done a remarkable job to get to this point from only five starts - actually four if you take into account when she bucked and was pulled up at Ellerslie on Melbourne Cup day. She pays the price for getting here a fraction too soon though and it showed when she seemed to lose it mentally coming out of the gates on Levin Stakes day and Patrick Holmes had no option but to let her stride to the front. She was struggling on the home turn, but 200m out she decided to switch on again and rallied back to finish a good third to the impressive Pretorious. She will be smart when she puts it all together.

Daddy Knows Best (No4, R8) is ready for a middle distance after two runs over 1600m this preparation. He showed glimpses of ability in a brief 3-year-old career and is worth paying attention to. Visitor Long Hitter (No2) has done nothing wrong.

It's a while since we've seen a maiden win as impressively as Restitution (No2, R10) managed at Ellerslie a couple of weeks back. He was last and four wide on the bend and simply buried the opposition late to score untested. This is a much better field but he won't need to produce a great deal more to be very competitive again. Accardo (No9) was similarly stylish in his winning debut on this track last start.