The Hombre is equal $5 favourite to lift today's A$126,000 ($165,000) Premier's Cup at Doomben and trainer John Bary doesn't disagree with that rating.
That $5 is actually in Australia with Colin Tidy's Betchoice - you can do better with the New Zealand TAB at $6, which is a little ironic.
The Aussies fancy the chances of The Hombre more than we do.
The New Zealand TAB has the Lee Freedman-trained Fanjura, to be ridden by Corey Brown, as $5 favourite, while Betchoice has Fanjura equal favourite with The Hombre.
"I think he's a real chance to win," says Bary of The Hombre.
"He did all the donkey work in front in that very good field last week and Jonathan [Riddell] said he felt terrific as if he was going to win halfway down the home straight.
"He blew out the last bit and he's a better horse this week."
The Hombre not only drops in class from last week, he sheds 4kg because this is a handicap. That makes this a lengths easier assignment.
Because of the 55kg, local rider Jim Byrne replaces Riddell.
Matamata 2-year-old Shanghai Bund in the A$100,000 The Phoenix, is another strong New Zealand hope for victory at Doomben.
Trainer John Sargent is tipping him out after his luckless sixth on Australian debut and even several Australian bookmakers are handing out the tip.
They have him at $4.40 second favourite behind the $3.70 shot Saramenha.
Rider Shane Scriven told Sargent the juvenile galloped very well on Tuesday morning.
Shanghai Bund covered a lot of extra ground from a wide gate in his first Australian start.
And today he has a favourable No 5 barrier.
The Michael Pitman-trained Milo is joint favourite with Liesele for his Australian debut in the 1200m 3-year-old handicap at the start of today's programme.
It is difficult to assess Milo in this company because although he won the Gore and Dunedin Guineas, he has essentially raced against moderate opposition in his only six starts.
You can get just $4.50 about his chances and in the same race $14 about another New Zealander in Upsala, a recent winner on the Gold Coast track.
The other New Zealanders engaged on the day, Endor and Five's A Diamond, are at $31 and $51 and not expected to feature in Race 5.
Racing: Hombre big chance at Doomben
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.