KEY POINTS:
MELBOURNE - Efficient won Saturday's A$1.5 million Victoria Derby like a budding champion.
Either they were a poor lot or Efficient is Australia's next superstar.
But would that be enough to convince you to run the 3-year-old in tomorrow's A$5 million Melbourne Cup?
The short answer has to be no.
In horse racing, record books tell you only half the story, but when they tell you the last 3-year-old to win the Melbourne Cup was Skipton back in 1941, you have to believe you should be paying attention.
This is not about whether 3-year-olds are good enough or tough enough to win the Melbourne Cup, this is about something much more important - what a Cup run can do to a tender 3-year-old, which is what Efficient is.
In one of his last years, the great Tommy Smith decided Nothin' Leica Dane should run in the Melbourne Cup four days after winning the Victoria Derby.
Nothin' Leica Dane, a big strapping bloke, tried his heart out and finished second to Doriemus, but he never won another race.
He earned A$1,428, 090 in his 3-year-old year, A$323,600 from minor placings as a 4-year-old and just $18,873 as a 5-year-old.
There is no way of proving it, but you can make a good argument that the Melbourne Cup stripped something from Nothin' Leica Dane that could not be replaced.
The Derby win was sufficient for wealthy Melbourne owner Lloyd Williams to convince himself Efficient should be in the starting gates at Flemington's famous metric two mile start tomorrow.
Regardless of what it might or might not do to Efficient, you cannot rule the horse out as a chance.
Victoria Derbies are traditionally grinding races, but Efficient produced something much better to win the Derby, flashing home quickly after a brilliant ride by Michael Rodd.
Rodd came out with a very significant quote after Efficient won the AAMI Vase at Moonee Valley last Saturday week, saying the horse only got into his right stride and built momentum after passing the finish line.
"He was incredible," added Rodd.
"I was confident enough in the horse that I could ride him like that."
That's a sign that the 3200m might not test his stamina index.
Efficient is officially trained by Graeme Rogerson and the deputy trainer is John Sadler, who has vast experience in Melbourne and Dubai.
Sadler loves the horse.
"He's special, this bloke," enthused Sadler as he watched Efficient walk away on Saturday.
"The most amazing thing is that nothing worries him."
Another strong tip for the horse's chances of seeing out 3200m.
If Craig Newitt can give Efficient the same economical run Rodd managed in the Derby, the horse will once again get the last run at the leaders in the home straight.
Williams races Efficient with Wellingtonian Michael Sellars, his brother Tony and Wellington hotel owner and property developer Graham Hunt.
Michael Sellars gripped a drink almost to breaking point in the members' stand on Saturday night.
Races worth A$1.5 million are not won everyday.
"It doesn't get much better than this, does it?"
Well, it could actually get a lot better.
"I haven't been that great lately - my doctor's restricting me to two glasses of wine a day.
"If the horse wins on Tuesday I'll have to switch to bigger glasses."
Greg Childs felt the Mike Moroney-trained The One had probably done a touch too much this preparation. Childs appeared to ease the colt down.
"He'll be a better horse in the autumn."
* While there have to be some doubts over Efficient's chances tomorrow, Melbourne bookmaker Michael Eskander immediately posted him at $7 for the great race.
"It was an amazing win at his sixth start," Eskander said.
"The way he finished off suggests two miles won't be a problem."
Owner Williams, who used to terrorise people like Eskander with his punting forays in partnership with the late Kerry Packer, hinted last week that he might make a comeback.
He is unlikely to do it in person, preferring to study the races and replays at home.
"Lloyd is a very private person but he is a great man," Rogerson said.
"This is all for him."
Sweepstake chart
* Get your sweepstake chart in tomorrow's Herald with a special 10-page section covering all the Melbourne Cup action.
* In Auckland, Ellerslie will feature 10 on-course races and live coverage from Flemington. There's also a fashion competition and a post-race party. Gates open at 10.30 am, and the Melbourne Cup field is set to get away at 5pm.
New Zealand TAB odds for the Melbourne Cup:
$5 Tawqeet; $6 Yeats; $7 Efficient; $8 Pop Rock; $12 Maybe Better, Delta Blues; $16 Geordieland; $17 Zipping; $20 Activation, Mandela, On A Jeune; $22 Dizelle; $25 Kerry O'Reilly; $40 Railings; $50 Art Success; $60 Headturner; $80 Glistening; $100 Dolphin Jo, Land 'n Stars, Demerger, Zabeat; $150 Ice Chariot; $200 Mahtoum, Short Pause.
