Racing: Heavy tracks throw form into doubt

Alegrio beat a smart field at Te Rapa on Saturday including Mill Duckie and Red Ruler. File photo / Glenn Jeffrey

Have the weather forecasters ever got it right?

Whether or not, let's hope they have got it wrong for January, where they've said pretty much it will rain every day.

Sounds fanciful, but that's been the way it is in much of Queensland for December.

"I can't remember the last day it didn't rain in Brisbane," said Courier Mail racing editor Bart Sinclair last night.

"If we get one more day's rain we'll need boats to get out of this joint."

The Ellerslie carnival is about to start and while the rain so far has been marvellous for the condition and preparation of the track, an end to it in the next couple of days will be even more marvellous.

Here's a few hints for the carnival from Saturday's races.

BACK THESE

Mill Duckie: Huge late run to finish third behind stablemate Alegrio in her first start back. Should kick a big goal over the Ellerslie carnival.

Saw Her Walkin By: Back and covered a massive amount of ground on the home bend. Kept going though and wasn't far away. Should be better over more distance than this 1200m.

Ebullient: Ethereal's son who showed with his debut second he's got the family ability. Watch when he gets it all together.

Toma Valea: Caught wide from a bad gate. Off the track on the corner, but kept up the fight and was beaten only a long neck and half a length. Prefers it a bit wet, so if the forecasters are right and we get a wet January, keep him in mind.

Red Ruler: Lumped his 62kg bravely to be very strong late in the sprint. They probably can't beat him at Ellerslie when he gets to his proper distance.

Noble Warrior: Needs more ground than the 1600m and got it on Saturday - problem was the others ran only 1600m. Was so wide he was out of sight. His placed effort was massive.

Oakberry: Very slow start didn't help. Excellent finish to be beaten just a short neck and half a head.

Our Black Pearl: Had every chance in the trail behind eventual winner Mr Spock, but never stopped chasing. Very brave.

Next: Brave win at only her second time to the races. Should get better.

Sir Jack Gunno: Refused to yield when hotly challenged late. The way he's going he is destined to win a nice race.

Worthing: Chased Sir Jack Gunno hard and never gave up. Racing consistently now.

Shantaine: Made it look easy winning the last at Manawatu. There is a sense of timing that she is about to burst on to the main stage.

UNLUCKY

None more than The Party Stand. Twice flattened when looking for gaps early in the run home and flew into fourth. Would have won by 25 minutes. Put her out of the Dunstan Final unless she wins the qualifier at Ellerslie on Sunday. On that run she will.

Bone Of Contention: To get out from behind them had to first cross the heels of Waitui Zone, then of Castle Heights then of the winner, Veloce Bella. Was still winding up when beaten one length in second place. The horse they have to beat in the Dunstan Final.

Scarlett Lady: Drew wide, settled second last then didn't get the room she needed in the home straight to be beaten less than one length. Won't be long in maidens.

HATS OFF

To Lisa Latta. Wins the first at Manawatu and backs up next race with a 1-2-3 result in the 2-year-old race, then her bet of the day Justanexcuse gets the money. Those who had their life on Justanexcuse had to reach for the air pump though - he wasn't going to get there until the last two strides.

YOU ARE KIDDING

Big Quick: After a trio of seconds from just three starts, Chennai deserved her win, but was completely overshadowed by runner-up Big Quick. Difficult to assess how many lengths he lost when he ran off on the corner, but 10 is in the ballpark. To be beaten a long neck was incredible. What a lovely stride he's got.

HEAD SHAKERS

Leica Scotch: Didn't get a lot of room when he needed it at the top of the home straight, but failed to do a lot in the final 140m when it did come. Has huge ability and might be better racing in the open.

Peace Lilly: Went into her race with a 42121 formline and failed to raise a gallop, virtually tailing the field. She's better than that.

WORTH REMEMBERING

Irish Opera: Now zip from nine at Te Rapa. Might turn that around at Ellerslie.

LONG-RANGE TIP

Japanese-owned/French-trained mare Sahpresa, who ran in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Mile. Certainty beaten when a close fourth in the Mile Championship in Japan on her way to Hong Kong. Lightened right off after Japan, but still managed third in Hong Kong after sitting three wide without cover. Will strengthen during a spell and come back next year and win a group one mile on the international circuit. Remember the name.

HONG KONG

Among the best punters in the world. The lack of mystery there is that they have an average of 18 or 19 races a week. Punters get to know horses almost by their stable names.

This week's New Zealand Turf Digest/Best Bets, which covered only Thursday to Saturday night, contained 157 races.

The TAB seems to want to create more and more races in New Zealand and Australia - what it calls product - because that creates slightly more betting by turning the dollar over more often.

In some ways that's right, but it also becomes counter productive because inevitably it's impossible for the race follower to keep up with form.

Stop someone in the street in Hong Kong and ask them where the favourite in Race 4 at Happy Valley on Wednesday night finished two starts back and there's half a chance they could tell you.

DAVID WALSH WINS

Typical thinking, winning ride by the oldest, wisest head in racing to take the Rich Hill Stud 3YO Stud Premier at Manawatu on Starguru. Let's hope we don't get too many more wet tracks this summer, but on them Walsh is close enough to a genius.