Racing: Heavy Tauranga racetrack a punter's nightmare

A soft track is just what you don't need for a $200,000 Pick6.

Chasing money like that you need to find at least one anchor bet in the six races, preferably two. They looked to be there on a decent track, but on soft footing, well, good luck.

Tauranga is not the ideal wet track - the difference between those horses who manage the conditions and those left splashing is wider than those who believe we should be doing the haka in Melbourne and those that don't.

The conditions raise a lot of questions and provide few answers. For example, what do you do with the likes of Captain Kurt in the first Pick6 leg - he was close to an anchor on a decent track, but now it comes down to whether you still include him.

If there is rain overnight it might provide that answer. This week Tauranga copped 84mm of rain. Yesterday the footing was bordering on heavy, but if it fined up overnight and sun and wind starting bringing the track back, a horse like Captain Kurt might still manage a reasonable, soft track.

Unless the footing became heavy, in which case Captain Kurt may well not start, you have to put him in your first leg selections - you'd feel pretty dumb if you got the last five legs and had missed out on Captain Kurt.

Waikeepadacash is a must. He generally likes the fire out of the footing and got away with a firm surface when he won over the March carnival at Ellerslie. This race will suit him.

The value is Howmuchyacharging. The filly has had only six starts, manages off tracks well and comes in fresh from a break following her effort to finish only five lengths off Seachange in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton in November. That is very good form for a race like this. Assuming Mi Jubilee starts instead in the open sprint, the above three stand out.

Leigh Valley (No4, R6) produces freakish performances at times, often when she is fresh and generally with a bit of rain around. She finds those two conditions today and is probably close enough to a Pick6 anchor if there is one.

Mi Jubilee (No5) was super impressive lumping 58kg and winning in fast time at Trentham last week. With Lee Calloway's 3kg allowance again she comes into this race nicely on 53kg, the only disincentive is the possibility that the conditions may not lend themselves to speed horses like herself. Include her unless the pattern shows the speedsters are completely out on the day.

Only nine runners accepted for the $120,000 feature, but you need to go wide with your Pick6 runners. You almost certainly need, not necessarily in this order, Atapi (No1, R7), Orpington (No4), Arlingtonboulevard (No7) and Temple Hills (No9). And that's risking horses of the calibre of Tui Song (No2) and LA Sizeranne (No3). There might be a question mark over La Sizeranne in the conditions, but Tui Song will love the give in the footing.

The ease of the win by Foursfield (No3, R8) on the final day at Ellerslie was quite remarkable given the work he'd done to lead after 550m. He beat a smart type in Mick Curtis by nearly four lengths and has only to be close to the same form here. His Ellerslie win was on a firm track, but he was placed at his only two starts in the heavy and few of the horses by his sire Four Seasons are unable to manage it wet.

Alberton Rose (No2) is a must-include. She finished only seventh when resuming at Ellerslie, but she had to cover some extra ground and will probably be a shade fitter for that run. She has good form on rain-affected tracks and by Race 8 Chris Johnson will have worked out exactly the right part of the track on which to make a final lunge. Being by Volksraad and with 58kg, Volk Dancer (No1) might be vulnerable and better chances might be Cross Lease (No7), Kukri Lane (No9) and Manjaro (No10). This is a tricky field, going wide might be the best option.

On a firm track you needed only Sphenophyta (No10) in Race 9, now it's different. You don't know how Sphenophyta will cope with a soft track, because he's never raced on anything but good footing.

But being a long, big-striding type, it's easy to imagine his stride being shortened up by testing conditions. He's far too good to leave out, but include also, Authoress (No7), Fasaadi (No6) and Tony The Pony (No4).

Race 10 is a horror event to wind up a Pick6 on. Queens View (No10) will be improved for her first-up run at Hastings recently, where she did better than the seventh placing suggests. She has not missed the money in five starts on rain-affected tracks.

Ted Tyndel (No5) has to be included and the upsetter might be fresh runner Daddy Knows Best (No6). He has shown real ability in his light campaigns so far and will appreciate the conditions.

What a great betting race the Taranaki team has for the 100th Great Western Interprovincial at New Plymouth. Avaroadi (No3, R9) won't be favourite, but have a bit on him and follow him from this point - he won't let you down. Star OThe Ball (No9) and Mikki Street (No10) are musts for what should be a big trifecta.