Racing: Heavy Ellerslie track will suit Montjee

Montjee (rails) has run top races in his last three starts. Photo / APN

Montjee likes the heaviest of winter footing and he's going to get it at Ellerslie today.

The Matamata stayer has run top races in his last three starts for a second, a third and a fourth, but not one of those tracks was ideal for him.

Even the heavy rated track at Te Rapa last start - too heavy for some horses - wasn't the type of surface Montjee (No2, R3) prefers.

Today should be much more to his liking.

Lamington Vegas (No3, R1) comes into today's race under much different circumstances than when beaten favourite as runner-up on this track last start.

Last time the Matamata mare carried her full handicap of 58kg. Today Harry Kasim takes 3kg off her 54kg and the 51kg in today's very testing conditions will be the key to this race.

Saint Pat's original barrier of No 15 looked pretty ordinary, but with three scratchings already yesterday afternoon, the No 11 looked a lot more inviting. He won two in a row and was given a break and although only third he impressed in a recent barrier trial when a closing third to Sharp Princess. He looks full of promise. Hula Belle is very solid and fights hard.

Lady Chaparral (No2, R4) hasn't raced on a heavy track so there is a bit of guesswork here. Barrier trials are different to races, but she looked good in the heavy stuff when winning at the recent Te Awamutu trials. This is a very good field, but Lady Chaparral has performed very well in even better fields. Plenty of chances in this, but Indian Sky (No1) and Queen Sabeel (No3) can't be left out of the trifecta on recent form.

The Great Northern Hurdles, well, you've got Counter Punch (No1, R5), Joint Effort (No3), Solid Steal (No4) and Waitaha Toa (No6) all with strong claims.

In the conditions it might come down to sheer grit and experience and if that's the case Counter Punch might sneak into the No 1 frame. You love to see effort rewarded and the appropriately named Joint Effort would bring the house down if she won for Northern Southland after a four-day float trip. Probably the race of the day.

Ginga Dude (No1, R6) would appreciate a better track. He won this race last year narrowly from a good field, but it was on a much firmer dead surface. He also looked comfortable enough when winning at the Te Awamutu trials in the heavy stuff, but he didn't have to have his head let go and it's generally only when they are put under pressure that horses start to struggle in bad ground. We know St Germaine (No7) will manage the conditions and with 4kg less than Ginga Dude she could be the bet. Ginga Dude has probably never looked better though and he won't give in without a fight.

Just about everyone wants to see Hypnotize (No1, R7) win the Great Northern Steeples for the third time. It won't be easy on him, but today's conditions are for the tough and they don't come tougher than Hypnotize.

His realistic dangers are Brushman (No3) and Fair King (No2).

The last three races are all tough and value bets are probably the way to go.

Matakan (No13, R8), Moni Nui (No2) and Saint Peter (No3) are among the form horses, but an each-way on Sonny Liston (No7) might not go astray. He tailed the field last start, but has bounced back from that before.

Every horse has a chance in the last.

Cash Kingdom (No6, R10) is one of the most improved around in this grade and with another decent apprentice claim he rates as an each-way chance. The draw looks awkward from this starting point, but he's a go-forward horse.