Racing: Heavy conditions will favour the more cautious punters

Caution is the word of the day for punting at Rotorua this afternoon.

A heavy track means they'll be making hard work of it, and that's just the punters, the horses will too.

You need horses that have the best possible wet track form.

In the first Blake's Boy (No2, R1) has had a jumper's flat and two hurdle races so he's going to be as fit as any facing him and that's going to be crucial as well. His heavy track stats are five wins and five placings from 12 starts. He'll give you a good sight. Label This (No5) is another that has been looking for a wet track.

Difficult to know if Joe Dirt (No6, R2) will fully appreciate a track as heavy as he will strike today, but he's won in the slow and he's twice been placed at Rotorua from three starts, always a good indication on this track.

His stablemate Jimmy Jump (No17) last night required one further scratching to regain the field and he is not an impossible chance to get some money if he does that.

At acceptance time the unraced Farrah (No6, R3) and the one-start O'Reason (No7) looked among the best chances, but you have to question whether it will be a day for the inexperienced. Keep them safe in multiple bets and couple them up with Dauntless (No1).

Brosarm (No9, R4), her stablemate Curvy Girl (No4) and Maggie Do (No3) have good wet track form.

Apprentice allowances are going to be important in today's conditions and Curvy Girl gets 3kg off her back via Craig Grylls and Lee Callaway will reduce Maggie Do by 2kg. All tough races, but finding the best value around this trio could be sensible.

Kenny Starfighter (No10, R5) is not quite as good as the wraps that were on him as a 3-year-old in the early part of last season, but he's pretty smart when the mud starts getting up over his fetlocks and he's a real chance today.

That was a good effort to finish fifth at Te Rapa last start and this track should suit him better.

Plenty of upset chances here. Donna Rosita (No2) disappointed when 12th at Te Rapa last start, but conditions that day did not suit all horses and she's smart enough to warrant another chance. So is Echo Maid (No5).

The form of Gliding (No2, R6) suggests he can go close to making it a winning treble. He is stepping up in grade from his Marlborough victories, but he showed good form in stronger races last winter.

Prangelica (No12) is worth a look for multiples. She raced a bit one-paced at Ellerslie when resuming and will definitely appreciate the step up in distance as well as the wet track.

Well, it's always tough to even contemplate backing against Balmuse (No1, R7). There are rarely certainties on a heavy track at Rotorua, but his great class should see him through, despite his topweight of 59.5kg.

Given the conditions it's difficult to nominate the placegetters, but the greatest certainty is that one of the trifecta three will be at good odds.

Balmuse's trainer Kevin Myers should have another magic day at Rotorua. Gull (No2, R8) has good wet track form and looks the danger to the likes of Ascot Isle (No7) and Sandcastle (No7).

If Miss Potential (No1, R9) is pulled out this morning and that looked very likely last night, Crepe De Chine (No12) might make it two from two at Rotorua. You can probably forget the failure at Te Rapa last start, the track upset a host of horses.

The often underrated Santoya (No3) could be some great value.