By MICHAEL GUERIN
Anthony Butt has had this feeling before but he still doesn't like admitting to it.
Deep down inside the Canterbury horseman knows there is a good chance his champion trotter Lyell Creek will be beaten at Alexandra Park tonight.
Everything is against the great horse. He will be having his first start for over a month and will have to concede a start to the best in the business over the 2200m of the City Of Sails Trot. If Lyell Creek steps well he will settle maybe six lengths off horses like Mountain Gold and Special Force, both of whom held him out in a sprint home at last Saturday's Alexandra Park workouts.
If he steps slowly or has any early traffic problems Lyell Creek could settle a dozen lengths from the leaders in a capacity field. Either way, tonight is going to be as tough a test as Lyell Creek has ever undergone. But still Butt can't bring himself to say the champ will get beaten -- and for a good reason.
"I know it will be a very hard race for him but we have been there before," says Butt.
"There have been other races this season when I thought we were really up against it but he just keeps coming through. It is hard to ever think he is going to get beaten because he has such a big heart."
The heart that has carried Lyell Creek through this season unbeaten is all that stands between him and defeat tonight.
Any other horse in this field would be virtually written off as a serious winning chance from a second line draw in such a hot field. But Lyell Creek is an exception to almost all rules.
He did, after all, overcome an early check to beat most he meets tonight in the Dullard Cup in January. A month later he sat three wide for an entire mile trotted in 1:58 and beat the likes of Sundon's Way and Special Force again. To win tonight he will have to be significantly better than his opposition - but on what we have seen so far this season, he is.
Mountain Gold is the obvious danger. He can begin very quickly and will be heading for the front, from where he could trot his last mile in 1:58, making the favourite's task an unenviable one.
Special Force trotted better at the workouts last week and appeals as the other danger while Sundon's Way is impossible to follow but will be at backable odds tonight.
While Lyell Creek may be able to overcome a second line draw tonight, his stablemate Pocket Me could actually be advantaged by a similar marble in the $75,000 Taylor Mile. Pocket Me looks set to trail leader and favourite Mac De Stroyer from where he appears the biggest danger.
Mac De Stroyer showed with a sharp second at the workouts last Saturday he is back to his best and has the gate speed to lead.
If trainer-driver Todd MacFarlane is able to get through the first 800m without going crazy then Mac De Stroyer should win.
But if he gets attacked, and with Seafield Raider in the race that is on the cards, then the race could be set up for a follower like Pocket Me.
"He does have great speed and this is the ideal draw for him," said Butt.
"I'd be surprised if he doesn't go close."
The enigma of the Mile is Classic Turbo. He is one of the most exciting pacers in New Zealand but will be giving the leaders a big start after 400m. He can do an enormous amount of work in his races but better horses than him have found a second line draw beyond them in the Taylor Mile.
Earlier in the night the draws play into the hands of Matai Mackeznzie and London Mews over City Rogue and Parisian Falcon in the Juvenile Championship while Enthusiast has looked the best of a stunning 3-year-old trotting crop and should prove it in the Sires Stakes Championship.
Racing: Heart Freak's biggest weapon
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