The better conditions at Hastings today rather than Tauranga makes it the safer betting venue and local The Hombre (No 2, R7) looks one of the better prospects.
The Hombre was beaten first-up at Trentham last start when expected to go close, but it was by an extraordinary front-running exhibition from Bedlum, who ran them hard in front and refused to be caught.
There was plenty of grit in the way The Hombre fought for second and he's certain to be fitter for that one run. He'll also benefit from the jump from 1400m to 1600m. Even with 59kg topweight he should shine through here.
There are a few chances in the juvenile, Race 2, and one of the better ones is Harlequin (No 3), who has impressed in two placed runs from his only two starts. His disadvantage is that he gets back in running, which cost him dearly at Te Aroha last start on a day when they were winning up front. He also struck traffic problems and his fifth was very good.
There are a couple of smart ones here he wouldn't want to get too far off, but if he gets a crack at them in the home straight he'll be storming into it late. The interesting runner is St Darci (No 8) who has shown plenty of speed and done things wrong in his only two starts. He has been bought and will have his first start for Shaune Ritchie. There is ability there.
Geographer (No 3, R3) went up to win at Te Aroha last start, but seemed to get anchored in the tricky footing that day and can be forgiven his fourth. He looks smart and although drawn out a bit wider than you would like to see, will be competitive. So will Diamond Sitara (No 6) who confirmed her promise with a stylish Tauranga victory last start and has the perfect barrier draw.
St Germaine (No 5) ran into a pretty good type in Gendarme at Te Teko. She was narrowly beaten, but was flying at the line and should be improved. This is a very competitive field, but she is smart and finally looks back to her best.
Noel Harris rates Phantom Storm (No 8, R8) one of our coming stayers and he rates highly in the Hawkes Bay Gold Cup. The 53.5kg appeals in this field which, it has to be said, is indicative of our average class of overall stayers this season.
Phantom Storm was beaten by a good horse, but also by the heavy track, at Ellerslie last start and will better appreciate the conditions today. Mr Tipsy (No 1) would beat them if he produced his best and something like Yours (No 10) could be a lightweight danger.
Big apprentice claims means O'Cartier (No 1, R9) and Fritzy Boy (No 2) will both carry 57.5kg in the sprint, which should see little between them.
Adam Stewart on O'Cartier has had just one unplaced raceday ride, so what he does will be under the microscope. Good luck to the boy, that's a lot of pressure and he probably didn't cop a lot of sleep last night. Matthew Ward on Fritzy Boy has comparatively wide experience. If the track was wet you'd prefer Fritzy Boy and he might still be the one, but it's a close call.
The reasonably good footing won't entirely suit The Brown Bomber (No 11), but he's extra good and he's still worth including in multiples at good odds.
The last is a very competitive race. Phar Cry (No 12, R10) looked good in just two starts in her last campaign. She is resuming and is from a stable that can get them to win fresh.
Tragically, Tauranga was a slow 9 yesterday morning with drizzle continuing yesterday and predicted to do so again today.
Punting will be tough.
Splinter (No 14, R3) is an interesting runner. She had no luck at Te Aroha last start when expected to go well and looks well placed in this highweight with Chad Ormsby aboard against the jumps jockeys. Whether she will cope with the track is the question mark, but she is by Thorn Park and most of them do.
Abbey Trelae (No 6, R4) definitely will manage the ground. She loves it and with the benefit of one run back from a spell should be fit enough now.
Despite his topweight of 58kg Keeping (No 1, R6) will be competitive. There was plenty to like about his fourth first-up last time and this should be a close go.
The conditions suit Nicole Amy (No 6 R7).
* Further south, Jamie Bullard will renew his association with Borninthestates in the $70,000 Riverton Cup today.
Borninthestates is attempting to repeat his Riverton Cup (2147m) win of three years ago when he was ridden by Ashlee Mundy.
He ran fourth in the race in 2009 and did not start last year.
The 8-year-old has been at Riverton since Thursday with other members of the Pitman stable.
"He has been at Waikouaiti before going to Riverton and has done plenty of work," Pitman said.
- Additional reporting, Tayler Strong
Racing: Hastings looks a safer winning bet
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