Racing: Hard to say how good juvenile may be

Tomorrow's $45,000 Great Northern Foal Stakes at Ellerslie is a battle between experience and talent.

And that's not to say the experienced is without talent.

Te Awamutu-trained Smoulder is a topliner in the making.

The mystery element in summing up the Listed 2-year-old race is just how good debut winner We Can Say It Now may be.

Her Matamata first-up win suggested she could be exceptional and she almost certainly is.

How she will handle 1400m and a wet track, rated yesterday as a slow (9), at her second start against a more mature talent like Smoulder will decide the result here.

Co-trainer Murray Baker has a huge opinion of We Can Say It Now, but has one reservation - the right-handed track.

"She hasn't trialled or raced left-handed, so it's a bit of a guess.

"She'd more of a 3-year-old."

That's the impression We Can Say It Now gives, but she has enough speed to make her a factor in any 2-year-old race, something evident when she sat on the speed at Matamata. She also indicated a step up in distance, which she strikes here, will not be a worry.

Smoulder is good, particularly late in her races and that's going to be important in the closing stages tomorrow. The way she has put away State Of Elation and Rocks Of Bawn at Tauranga in recent starts has been eye-catching.

The last 150m of this race will be the crucial element if Smoulder can get over the top of We Can Say It Now.

State of Elation was run down by Smoulder at Tauranga last start with a run that suggested improvement.

He might have been caught last time, but it was by a horse that swamped him and does not necessarily mean he's the type that won't handle the jump from 1200m to 1400m.

Earlier on the day, South Island visitor O'Cartier will seek some compensation in the The Ellerslie Events Centre 1200 after being a late scratching at Te Rapa last Saturday. He will appreciate his 3kg claim.