Trying to find a good thing at the gallops at this time of year is like backing a golfer to win the US Open at $5 two weeks before the first round.
But someone has to win.
Vamperalla (No3, R8), Rutas Gift (No4, R4), Quartze (No4, R7) and Star Of Rio (No6, R2) are all sound each-way prospects at Avondale today.
Vamperalla, via Harmony Mokis apprentice allowance, is going to drop from 57kg and 56kg in her last two starts to 54.5kg. Perhaps more important she is going to be away from being cramped up on the inside of horses, something which trainer Nick Bishara has identified as being very much against his speedy mare.
That was a nice winning effort of Vamperalla's at Te Rapa two starts back and a repeat of that level of effort would take her close again.
Star Of Rio might be value on the tote in Race 2. This is a much trickier field than it first appears and Star Of Rio looks nicely placed to perhaps cause a mild surprise. He chased the talented Don't Ya Lovett home two starts back and did well after being a shade slow to jump to finish third behind Zvezda when that horse was claiming an allowance and he wasn't at Te Rapa.
Star Of Rio has won at Avondale and should give a great sight.
It was just a matter of time before Rutas Gift (No4, R4) left maidens and there was a lot to like about the way he achieved it at Ellerslie last start. He went to the finish very strongly and if he can be equally relentless today he could make it back-to-back wins. Lord Ponsonby (No2) will clearly take some beating.
Quartze is due another win. He has turned in three honest efforts since scoring when fresh and this race offers him a chance to break through again. Craig Grylls could get over the line on a rocking horse at the moment.
The odds will probably be a touch tight, but Doryman (No2, R6) is just a touch of good luck off winning a maiden race. He didn't get any favours at Ellerslie last start and should be getting better with each race.
At Hastings today, Go Thenaki (No1, R8) should be assisted by the step up to 1400m.
He has had three 1200m races and in the last two he has looked just a tad outpaced late in the race. He has still tried hard and the distance this time should take him close.
So should the 3kg Patrick Bell will lift off his back.
You should be locked up for suggesting a quinella result to back in a jumping race, but it's a while since we've seen a pair stand out more than No Hero and Primo Canera in the Hawke's Bay Steeples. Primo Canera is the safest jumper in the business and No Hero is right alongside, despite tipping out at the first fence in the Waikato Steeples.
That won't happen again in a lifetime. It should be a magnificent spectacle between the two fine jumpers.
Racing: Hard to pick them but someone's got to win
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