Robert Dunn realises his champion mare Mainland Banner may have to give her rivals a 10m start and sit parked outside them for the last lap to win tonight's Auckland Cup.
And that is exactly what he thinks she will do.
The Canterbury trainer is relaxed about the huge task facing his princess of pacing as she attempts to down the queen of Alexandra Park, Alta Serena, in tonight's great race.
The reasons are simple.
"To be honest, if she faced a handicap like this in a capacity field 10 years ago, she couldn't have won," said Dunn.
"But while this race has some very good horses in it, it is not a truly great cup field and she could be a truly great horse.
"So I think she can give them a start, sit parked and still win."
Dunn knows all about chasing harness racing's biggest cups off handicaps, having spent four years doing just that with his former champion, Master Musician.
Back then he was chasing other champions like Chokin, Blossom Lady and Christopher Vance, all millionaires who at times dominated the group one stage.
"When you were racing horses like that, a 10m handicap meant you almost couldn't win because even if you got to them, they wouldn't lie down.
"But when you really take a look at this field I see no reason why she [Mainland Banner] can't win."
Dunn has great respect for Alta Serena but says many of the others in tonight's race have concerns.
"You have three horses off the unruly for a start and I think she will step straight past them.
"In fact, I think having those unruly horses there will make it a lot easier for us to settle handy.
"Lord Vader also isn't a great standing start horse while Tribute is only a six-win horse.
"Then you have Mi Muchacho, who hasn't raced for three months and I even thought Imagine That, who is usually a very good mare, was only average last week.
"And Napoleon isn't really a 3200m horse."
That staggering burst of honesty may not endear Dunn to his fellow trainers but he has a very good point - there are not many proven open class stayers in tonight's field.
That could be a disadvantage if Mainland Banner needed a cart into the race but Dunn says that won't be a problem.
"She is at her best when she is sitting parked because she relaxes there and as she showed in the [New Zealand] Cup she can sit parked over 3200m and still kick home in under 27 seconds.
"So when you add it up, I think the TAB have got it about right having her at $2.40 because she is the one to beat."
Dunn says travelling foreman Rhys Fensom is pleased with how Mainland Banner has worked this week and he is not concerned by the mare taking a long time to pass Onedin Legacy up the passing lane in her Alexandra Park debut last Friday.
"She didn't know what to do when she got to the passing lane because she has never been there in a race before.
"But she won't be in there this week so it won't matter."
If Dunn was punting, what would he prefer, the $2.40 for Mainland Banner or the $3.75 for Alta Serena?
"I think Mainland could be something very special and the best we have seen for quite a while. So if I was having a bet I'd back her."
Racing: Handicap doesn't faze Mainland man
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