The only new year resolutions likely to be kept are those who said: "I want to put on 3kg this year and probably drink more than I did last year."
Unless it was: "I will not back 10 winners on a programme this year."
Half the card should be the optimum goal and a good way to start cup day at Ellerslie today would be to target Aykroyd (No1, R3), a promising 4-year-old who has been unlucky not to quit his maiden status in his last two starts. There are a couple of promising sorts, including Dollarmore (No7), but Aykroyd looks the goods and should go close to winning.
Regency (No5, R1) sprinted at the leaders on Derby day, but the sprint lacked that real fire she showed on the firmer tracks. She is very smart, but watch the conditions, the firmer the footing the better her chances. Easy ground will be no trouble to Thee Old Dragon (No2), who bounced back into winning form brilliantly on Thursday. Nobodywantsme (No8) is underrated.
A steeplechase is never easy at this time of year, but if it comes down to class Sir Avion (No4, R1, Jtbt 7) is going to take plenty of beating. He was impressive in the between-races school twice over the Ellerslie hill on Derby Trial day. He has not raced over fences for more than a year and a half, but has got his fitness levels up on the flat. Lifeline (No12), Fair Brother (No3) and Corporate (No9) are trifecta chances.
Upsen Downs (No5, R2) might need a pretty good track, but if he gets it watch out for a big fresh-up run from a good barrier draw. He looked top class in a handful of starts last season.
If you watched the last 250m of Lunete's (No1, R4) maiden win at Ellerslie two weeks ago you won't want to be on anything else today. She is heading places and might simply be too good for this field. She is a long strider and perhaps a slightly wider barrier draw than No2 may have been preferable, but she has the class to overcome it.
The Rock (No11, R5) did not have things go his way when beaten favourite here last start and can be forgiven the failure. He is a stayer of real promise and while this stayers' final is always an extremely competitive race, he should go close. Trigger (No2) has to give most of them weight, but he was impressive winning on Thursday and should be further improved by his first middle distance this campaign.
If you get the Auckland Cup trifecta you will probably achieve your resolution of drinking more this year than last - whatever fills the three spots will pay plenty and this is one wide open field. Blazing (No15, R8) and Classic Babe (No17) could be the key to the trifecta. Blazing goes into the race as the country's most improved stayer and possibly the fittest horse racing today. And few, if any, in this field could sprint 200m as fast as Classic Babe ran the final stages of her Nathans Memorial win. Nikisha (No16), Smiling Like (No11) and Ebony Honor (No18) are all strong chances in a wide open field.
If the track is half reasonable Cullen (No6, R6) should be close enough to a good thing in the McDonogh Stakes. He should have won it last year instead of being beaten in the last stride, has drawn No1 barrier, will be ridden by Damien Oliver and his recent form in Australia is as good as at any stage of his career. All he needs is decent footing. O'Malley's Boy (No2) was hugely impressive winning the Concorde at Avondale and an easy track would suit him as well as Vyner's Lane (No5). Durzetta (No11) is value and the better the track the better the chances of Travellin' Man (No13).
Racing: Half the card optimum goal for serious punters
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