Racing: Gloves off for the Cox Plate

The breaks may not have gone El Roca's way but Long John was still an impressive winner of the Caulfield Guineas on Saturday. Photo / Getty Images

Atlantic Jewel brilliantly wins the Caulfield Stakes in the absence of It's A Dundeel.

Could It's A Dundeel have beaten wonder mare Atlantic Jewel in Saturday's A$400,000 Caulfield Stakes?

You didn't get that impression.

It's A Dundeel is absolute top class, but when the New Zealander narrowly toppled Atlantic Jewel in the Underwood Stakes there were niggling doubts: a few things were not in favour of the mare, not the least of which was the rain-affected track.

This time, on fast footing, it was a different Atlantic Jewel.

Even without It's A Dundeel there to test her, Atlantic Jewel made good horses like Foreteller, Super Cool and Green Moon resemble pit ponies.

Had It's A Dundeel been in the line-up, regardless of the result, we would have got an accurate read on what to expect in the A$3 million Cox Plate on Saturday week.

We don't have that, and as if the race needed additional lead-up publicity, what a great sense of anticipation the board at Moonee Valley has to promote.

The only thing certain is that the Cox Plate will not be an amble around and sprint home like Saturday's Caulfield Stakes turned into.

Cox Plates are magnificent examples of white-hot pressure. They are almost always run at a high cruising speed and the pressure sprint goes on a long way from home.

Only the tough survive, which is why 3-year-olds are bad bets in it.

Sunline and Northerly won four Cox Plates between them because both thrived on gladiatorial conflict.

Atlantic Jewel has enormous natural galloping ability - whether she has the Sunline/Northerly fortitude will be spelled out only on Saturday week. Of the pair, It's A Dundeel is more suited to a dogfight as he showed when he worried the mare out of the Underwood in the dying strides.

Part of the success of that victory can be attributed to the remarkably daring James McDonald ride of taking it to Atlantic Jewel right from the start.

They are not rides you see every day because the downside can be total defeat for your own horse, but it's a solid bet McDonald will be putting the pressure on Atlantic Jewel well before the home turn.

Weight-for-age races almost always come down to riding tactics and this one is going to be a beaut.

When things go right in group one racing there is no greater thrill anywhere.

When they go wrong there is no deeper heartbreak to be found.

Like the connections of Cambridge colt El Roca in Saturday's A$1million Caulfield Guineas.

All the blessings you could hope for from a favoured inside barrier were in place - like a trouble-free drag up behind the leader in the cosy trail.

Until the home turn.

Suddenly it all went wrong. Craig Newitt couldn't extract El Roca from behind the tiring leader and got dragged back to near last.

El Roca copped a severe buffeting before Newitt could get him into the clear and the pair finished strongly into fifth.

Yes, it was a million-dollar race, but for a Fastnet Rock colt to win the stallion-making event would have meant another A$9 million in stud career options.

Roll the clock back two years less two weeks and a number of the El Roca syndicate felt the other side of that dice roll when Sangster won the A$1.5 million Victoria Derby.

Different party this time.

Cruel. That's why you have to shake the hands of people you might not like when they win major races.

Because it's bloody hard to do.