A near perfect build-up could all come undone in a matter of seconds for Western Dream at Addington tomorrow.
The exceptional filly goes into the group one Nevele R Fillies Final with a list of pluses next to her name.
First, her arch-rival Tosti Girl has not travelled south after a slight virus sent her to the spelling paddock. Next, she has come through a tough lead-up race in excellent condition.
And lastly, she has travelled south well and drawn barrier one in the 1950m event.
Which sounds perfect. Unless of course Western Dream gets crossed at the start of the $100,000 event and ends up back on the rails, the worst place for our best staying filly.
So trainer-driver Tony Herlihy is hoping some education at running off the mobile gate at pace earlier this season will come into play tomorrow.
Western Dream had rarely been asked to show gate speed until after Christmas, when Herlihy decided if she was going to win major races both here and in Australia she would need to develop the ability to settle handy.
He has asked her to begin quickly on three occasions and each time she has been either first or second out, a repeat of which would be a huge advantage tomorrow.
"I am not really sure if she can hold these horses at the start because I haven't seen that much of some of them," admits Herlihy.
"But from our point of few I couldn't be happier with her.
"She came through that last race against some good older horses well and I think she will be close enough to spot on on Saturday.
"And I suppose if they go really hard at the start, hard enough to cross her, then the gaps might open up and give us some options."
With Tosti Girl out of the way Western Dream looks clearly the best three-year-old filly in the country and if she leads tomorrow she will take an enormous amount of catching.
Zitura, who has been the big improver in the autumn, Alinghi and Affairs Of State look the biggest dangers.
Zitura is consistent and tough so is a must for trifectas and Affairs Of State has drawn on Western Dream's back and would be perfectly poised if the favourite leads.
Alinghi is the dark horse of the race. At her best she is exceptionally good but her luckless trip to Australia for the New South Wales Oaks in March appears to have flattened her.
Back to her peak she can win at good money tomorrow.
Western Dream will be just one of several favourites Herlihy partners this weekend, starting with River Waltz in the main handicap at Alexandra Park tonight.
The four-year-old is dropping back from taking on Mainland Banner and co in the Messenger and while he is the best pacer in tonight's field he has had two standing starts for two misses.
"I think he will be all right from the stand and the chance to give him some experience at them is why he is still racing," said Herlihy.
"The Taylor Mile and Messenger don't seem to have taken too much out of him and I think he will step all right so he has to be a good chance."
Herlihy also rates the hopes of Linatawa, who raced below her best in his first start for the stable last time out but won at the workouts last week.
Racing: Gate speed key to dream win
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