KEY POINTS:
Timing is the most important element of horse racing and Fully Fledged has a real sense of it in tomorrow's $200,000 Ford Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes.
New Zealand runs only two group one juvenile events a year and Fully Fledged has timed his run into full form perfectly to pick up both.
He already has the first of them, the Ford Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, safely won and has the right barrier draw to make it a perfect two at Awapuni tomorrow afternoon.
The front cover of ONFORM shows why Fully Fledged's run into form has been so late - that is an image about 50m after he went through the Trentham running rail when about to win the Wellesley Stakes in February.
But that incident and a previous glitch are well behind the handsome, athletic youngster and he can be accepted as the season's best juvenile if he can win this race.
He already has stakes of $132,213 in the bank plus an additional $100,000 in race bonuses and will bank a further $118,750 if successful tomorrow.
But it is as a 3-year-old that Cambridge trainer Murray Baker expects Fully Fledged to be at his best.
"He's going to be a nice 3-year-old. He's a big bugger and time is going to help him."
There is always an element of guesswork when the top 2-year-olds run 1400m for the first time in this race.
But there is now no suspicions that Fully Fledged will manage the step up from 1200m.
They were extinguished when he stretched out admirably to win the Ford Diamond Stakes after second looked likely to be his prize close to the line.
The barrier draw will be key.
Six of the top chances have drawn the outside six barriers in the 18-horse field, whereas Fully Fledged looks to be perfectly placed.
His No 9 draw will become 7 if there are no scratchings and for such a long-striding horse that would be preferable to drawing inside the first four gates, where he would run the risk of being caught back along the rails.
Almost certainly because of the 1400m distance, this race has thrown up many examples in recent years of horse that have had their chances wrecked by doing too much work in the first half of the race.
Leith Innes should be able to give Fully Fledged the perfect economical passage.
Bookmakers see it that way. Yesterday the TAB had Fully Fledged at $4.50 and there was no shortage of takers, almost certainly because punters were not prepared to bet for luck on those drawn wide.
Murray Baker, about to embark on an Australian campaign with Rios and Nom Du Jeu, knows how difficult group ones are to win, despite having won six of them. "This will be a hard, hard race to win - it's a very good field."
Baker rates the Mark Walker-trained Minstrel Court the danger ahead of the fillies Raid and Veloce Bella.
With so many drawn out, Raid is beautifully placed from the No 1 gate.
She has the ability to follow speed and then produce a sprint - the perfect scenario for this race from an inside gate. Fully Fledged got her by a long neck in the Diamond Stakes after she looked the winner and similarly she appeared set for the huge winners' cheque for a fair bit of the Ellerslie home straight in the $1m Karaka Million.
Il Quello Veloce has had nowhere near the luck of some of the juveniles in the big races and from No 15 - 13 if the field stays intact - she certainly gets no favours again. But there is plenty to admire about the way she can hit the finish and if she can get an economical run midfield and the pace is right on she could still get over the top of them late.
SIRES SHOWDOWN
* Fully Fledged has all the attributes to win tomorrow's group one for the juveniles.
* He has come to form at the right time, will appreciate the step up to 1400m and most important of all has drawn a perfect barrier.
* There is a huge amount of talent engaged and if some of them can overcome their wide barriers there will be no shortage of opposition for Fully Fledged late in the race.
