Larry Cassidy hopes he rides two winners or none at all in Brisbane today.
Two wins would secure for the ex-New Zealander the Brisbane jockeys' premiership by a single digit from Stathi Katsidis.
But one win would still see the title go to Katsidis.
Brisbane racing has a strange ruling that in the case of a tie for first in the premiership, the title goes to the jockey who has ridden the most second placings during the season.
That is Katsidis.
It's a condition that does not thrill Cassidy. He has come a long way to get himself into this position after his high-profile career looked as good as over two years ago.
The former Woodville apprentice is the younger brother of Jim Cassidy, one of the finest jockeys of any era in Australasia.
Larry Cassidy is a completely different type of rider, but hugely effective.
The talent took him to 40 group one victories and more than 2000 winners, but Sydney racing is brutally unforgiving - you are only ever as good as your last big winner, or big bag of winners.
And if that was longer ago than your last haircut, you can start thinking re-launch.
A decade ago the face of Sydney racing changed dramatically - the horse talent tended to condense into three or four major stables, each of which had their No 1 and No 2 riders.
Cassidy was out in the cold.
"I tried to regroup, worked as hard as I could, but the best I could do was get on 40 to 1, 50 to 1 chances. I'd ride what I thought were good races to get into thirds and fourths, but they only remember you for the winners."
Frustrated, Cassidy weighed up his options. "I thought of going back to New Zealand, but the thought of the cold put me off."
He settled in Brisbane, where he admits the summer heat undermines him as much as the New Zealand cold, and worked his butt off.
Cassidy climbed the premiership ladder last season and even two weeks ago he conceded second or third was the best he could do on this season's list.
That was until last weekend.
Cassidy was five wins behind leader Stathi Katsidis, but when Katsidis was laid low with a severe virus, Cassidy booted home four winners to find himself in a direct slipstream.
Neither jockey rode a winner on a bleak day at Eagle Farm on Wednesday and for the last day of the season today Cassidy has a free hit with eight rides in Brisbane while Katsidis travels to Melbourne to ride Shoot Out.
But one win would annoy him. "Premierships are about winners, not seconds."
Whatever the result, Cassidy knows his career is back on track.
Katsidis is the younger brother of Michael Katsidis, who stopped the previously unbeaten Englishman Kevin Mitchell to take the WBO lightweight title in London in May.
Surprisingly, Katsidis says he will have no regrets if Cassidy denies him his first premiership.
"I rate Shoot Out just about the best I've ridden and I wouldn't risk missing out on him. If things go to plan he'll take me through the Melbourne spring carnival."
There was irony in Katsidis being missing on the critical raceday last weekend through genuine sickness - until a season or so ago the former wild child often went missing on raceday in a career littered with destructive alcohol and drug issues.
He attributes his clean comeback to the support of his partner Melissa and to the Brisbane racing stewards who insisted that a condition of his licence be attending a rehabilitation course.
Katsidis has an extremely likeable charisma and speaks about his rehab moments with typically complete frankness.
"I used to like to party, but I never knew when it was time to go home. Now I prefer to be at home.
"Seeing what destructive issues can do to people during rehab swung me around."
You could not get a more dramatic end to a premiership or two competitors who more deserve to win it.
CASSIDY V KATSIDIS
* The Brisbane jockeys' premiership goes down to the wire today.
* A remarkable turnaround in one week sees former New Zealand jockey Larry Cassidy challenging Brisbane's finest, Stathi Katsidis.
* With Katsidis riding in Melbourne, Cassidy has eight opportunities in Queensland today to take the title on the last day of the season.
Racing: Free hit for Cassidy to take title
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