Racing: Form is ordinary but it's unwise to ignore Padraig

Padraig looks a classy chance today at Tauranga.

The form looks ordinary but it may be unwise to disrespect Padraig at Tauranga today.

The handsome son of Power failed at Te Rapa when resuming from Andrew Campbell's stable last time, but back runners that day were seriously disadvantaged if they copped the sand kickback.

Padraig was taken to the Waipa barrier trials a couple of week ago and bolted in by five lengths.

He may not have been entirely happy in the heavy 10 conditions that day, but kept going strongly enough to suggest he will probably manage the Tauranga conditions today.

He looked classy here in just a couple of starts as a 2-year-old and was a winner from Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young's stable in Melbourne.

As an on-pace runner, Socially Excited (No1, R1) has found himself vulnerable on occasions on wet tracks, but the inside part of the track today should be in the best condition of the day in the opener. It should provide the Baker/Forsman runner to gain a well deserved victory.

Race 2 is tricky. Probably the safest each-way plonk is Kitaya (No3). The northern hemisphere-bred turned in a beaut when third in open company two back at Taranaki and almost certainly found the track a touch too firm when a nice fourth at Ruakaka last time produced. He should get his ideal footing today.

Justacanta (No9) suffers from getting back in the first 100m of her races. She can get home strongly though and ran a beaut final sectional when running on from near last at Te Rapa last time out. If is a massive word in horse racing, but IF she can just stay a couple of places more forward she can be right in this finish.

Mighty Me (No7) is the quick improver. He was caught three wide without cover when resuming at Te Rapa.

Suliman (No5, R4) goes up a grade, but the gallant way he stuck to it to win narrowly at Te Rapa last time gives him the right to favouritism today. He is progressive, as many of the Redwood horses are.

Princess El Jay (No4) has been in excellent shape lately. If she gets the right run she is definitely the danger.

Pacorus (No1, R5) remains the obvious choice for his back-to-back wins in the Kiwifruit Cup. Forget his last start, it was 1400m on an unsuitable track and this race over a much more suitable distance looks ideal. He has more than a touch of class when he gets the right conditions.

Doiknowyou (No2) is in the right form to be the danger and watch for a big run from local Adriatic Pearl (No5). She is capable of good things on the right day.

There is little to choose between the top four favourites in the day's feature, the fillies and mares. Without any great conviction we are going for Deals In Heels (No4, R7), who was extremely game in defeat at Te Rapa last start. A similar run would just about give her victory over stablemates Tomelilla (No2) and New York Minute (No3). Their threat is Underthemoonlight (No1). There should be little between all four.

There are probably seven or eight ways you could go in the last, Race 8. In a difficult race, we are going for an each way on No Need (No3). He wilted slightly to be close up in his resuming run at Te Rapa after some good trial form. He is probably better suited this time.