The big dollars are on West Australian hopeful Baltic Eagle - but he may prove to be a false favourite, writes MICHAEL GUERIN.
Once all the trash talk has died down and the big dollars have been bet there remains a very simple reason Young Rufus should win tonight's Victoria Cup at Moonee Valley.
He is the best horse in the race.
That might sound relatively obvious but if you got caught up this week in the hype that always surrounds the Victoria Cup you could have been forgiven for losing sight of the fact the Kiwi superstar is the best pacer in Australasia.
On his form this season Young Rufus deserves to start a hot favourite tonight. He has been the big improver on the Grand Circuit, with constant racing honing his muscular body to peak fitness about the end of November.
Since then only bad luck - in the Miracle Mile and Treuer Memorial - has beaten him.
When racing luck has gone even remotely his way Young Rufus has been too fast and too tough for most of his key rivals tonight, including Jofess, Double Identity, Smooth Satin and Facta Non Verba.
His win over the best Aussie pacers in the Ben Hur at Harold Park was the only time this season a pacer at the highest level managed to sit parked and still win.
Then came his staggering Auckland Cup demolition before he came from a seemingly hopeless position to run down Facta Non Verba in a 1:54.8 mile at Cambridge.
Young Rufus topped off his preparation for tonight's race by breezing over 2400m in 3:3, his last 800m in 55 seconds in a solo workout at Alexandra Park last Saturday.
And just to top off his perfect build-up to tonight's A$250,000 race he drew barrier three, with several of his arch-rivals drawn the second line.
So how come Young Rufus isn't the favourite for the cup in Victoria?
The answer to that question seems to be a mixture of hype, big quotes and huge bets from Western Australia.
After Perth pacer Baltic Eagle, winner of two group one races in the last month, drew barrier one on Tuesday his trainer-driver Kim Prentice declared he would hold the lead and what beats him would win.
The West Australians obviously believe their man because bookmakers all over Australia have been swamped by an avalanche of money for Baltic Eagle.
Prentice has only been training Baltic Eagle for about three months and has resurrected the pacer who was not showing before then because of allergies.
Prentice's insistence he will lead and stay there may be enough to deter Young Rufus' trainer Mark Purdon, and most other drivers, from engaging in a speed duel for the lead and with Australian harness racing punters obsessed by backing the horse who will lead on their smaller tracks, Baltic Eagle has assumed the mantle of favouritism for the best harness race of the season so far.
But what many punters, some experts and even some rival trainers are overlooking is that Young Rufus does not have to lead to beat Baltic Eagle or any other pacer in Australasia. If Baltic Eagle's connections are intent on holding the lead then Purdon only has to go off the gate a bit at the start to get handy and then play the waiting game.
With diamond-hard stayers like Jofess, Double Identity and Facta Non Verba in the race there is certain to be mid-race moves and at least some pressure on the leader.
If Purdon can sit just off those battles Young Rufus should slingshot past his rivals in the last 400m.
Obviously group one races crammed with outstanding pacers are never that easy, but this one simply might be.
"I know he is ready and the hard racing he has had over summer has really improved him," says Purdon. "I think he is every bit as good now as before the Auckland Cup and from barrier three I have plenty of options."
While Baltic Eagle would be hard to run down if he does lead and get an easy time in front, it is hard to see one of the big guns not pressuring him. And while his deeds in Western Australia have been outstanding, Perth form rarely stacks up in the major Grand Circuit races. He may be a false favourite tonight.
Of the winning chances tonight most have concerns. Jofess can only win at this level if he leads, which is unlikely here; Double Identity is in a similar boat but has a worse draw and is looking a shade tired and Facta Non Verba, for all his courage, is still two lengths below Young Rufus.
Racing: Forget hype, back Young Rufus
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