Racing: Forecast dampens Probabeel's hope in Cox Plate

Probabeel has shown she's a force to be reckoned with across the ditch. Photo / Bradley Photography

Melbourne weather could be just as big a threat to Probabeel as some of the world's best horses in Saturday's A$5 million Cox Plate.

The Matamata 4-year-old is the only New Zealand-trained galloper in Australasia's most important weight-for-age race at The Valley early Saturday night and so far her preparation has gone perfectly.

She won the Epsom in Sydney in dominant fashion last start, has travelled south to Melbourne well and handled her first look at The Valley on Tuesday morning, pleasing astute horseman Patrick Payne, the brother-in-law of Probabeel's race jockey, Kerrin McEvoy.

Probabeel then drew barrier two which could allow her to settle midfield or even handier in the running line without having to work.

So it is a case of so far so good for the two-time Karaka Million winner as she tries to beat Australia's best weight-for-age horses as well as some high-class Europeans, albeit by no means the best from there.

But that could all be undone if rain forecast this weekend arrives, as although Probabeel has a good winning strike rate on soft tracks she simply isn't as potent on them.

"We are really hoping the weather stays better than predicted," says trainer Jamie Richards.

"So far it hasn't been bad but it could really change things."

Not only would a wet track blunt Probabeel's brilliance but could take away the advantage of an inside barrier draw and softer surfaces often help the Europeans.

Weather aside, Richards couldn't be happier. "I feel like wrapping her in cotton wool and putting her away for 24 hours because she is ready and I just don't want anything to go wrong."

So can the weight-for-age newcomer win the great race?

"It is hard to see you are going to win a Cox Plate but we have a happy, healthy in-form horse so I think she has an each-way chance," he says.

The forecast rain has seen Probabeel drift from $7 to $8 but still sits on the fourth line of betting for the 2040m thriller.