If you're a serious punter, today's $100,000 Great Northern Steeplechase should be the last race you attack.
Some would say it's torture - 7 3/4 minutes is a long time to have to watch your money at risk.
But the Northern Steeplechase is perhaps the best punting vehicle today.
John Wheeler knows his way around a leading horse race anywhere in Australia and New Zealand, and in Real Tonic he looks to have the real deal in terms of what it takes to win one of the world's toughest races.
Real Tonic finished only 1.25 lengths behind Bart in the Pakuranga Hunt Cup after flying from Melbourne to Auckland on the morning of the race. It's difficult to believe the horse is not more settled this time and that Wheeler has not been able to poke the right amount of tough work into him during the last two weeks.
Even allowing that Bart and Just The Man will be better suited by the firmer track conditions, Real Tonic looks the one to beat.
Just The Man was right up alongside Bart and Real Tonic and rates highly, and the Browne pair The Storytella and Poacher were both badly affected by an early check in that race. Poacher did remarkably well to finish up a close fourth.
There will be few who can come up with a better betting jumps race than today's Great Northern Hurdles - half the field are strong winning hopes.
There are several ways to approach this rave, but perhaps the most sensible is to head in the direction of those horses who will really appreciate the firm track and you land on Wheeler's stablemates Midnight Opal and High Season. Both, and particularly Midnight Opal, jump lengths better on the firmer surfaces.
Starbo is he horse that is difficult to assess. With only two jumps races behind him you could say he is disadvantaged in this line-up, but his actual jumping is so magnificent it makes up for that. If Laura Tunnell can get Starbo a decent trip, the relative novice can be a big threat.
Evan Rayner has been tipping a huge effort from Wednesday Night for some time and is not concerned about him being beaten in lesser class at Wanganui last weekend.
A tough, tough race to bet on - go with Wheeler and have savers on Starbo and Wednesday Night.
Norville Prince (No 8, R1) and Yourtheman (No 7) will be right in the action in the opening hurdle race.
Norville Prince was well beaten at Te Rapa last start, but he may not have managed the track and it would be unwise to drop him just yet. He has any amount of ability, as has Yourtheman.
The pair are a long way short of being the only chances, but quinella them and add in savers in the multiples with Le Pulse (No 4) and Willie Winit (No6) and maybe take a chance that Aircraft (No 2) will manage the firmer conditions.
The connections of Year Of The Cat (No 14, R2) deserve some compensation for the disqualification when their rider weighed in light at Taupo last start. The effort to come from so far back would just about get her over the line in this field. Ististar (No 16) and Multi Tasker (No 9) deserve respect.
Yes, Danz Star (No 3, R3) would probably have appreciated some rain, as much for it making this race more of a grind - because he's looking for a middle distance now - as for his legs. That aside, he is all class and it took a good one in Haylee Baylee to topple him in a similar race at Te Rapa last start.
Peluche (No 11), scratched last week, makes appeal to get into the trifecta, as does Hi Yo Wassup (No 2).
Viz Vitae (No 2, R6) should simply have too much class for the opposition. He is a horse being discussed as a live hope for the big spring cups and faces here a bunch of winter handicappers.
On his second to Pin Up Boy at Hastings last time, Superalloy (No 7, R8) will be everyone's choice, but there is plenty of potential for an upset in this field. Superalloy probably has to be top of the list, but watch for runs from Enthralling (No 9), Sing In The Sun (No 1) and Veil (No 4) if she can overcome her wide barrier.
Cog Hill's (No 4, R9) recent Te Aroha barrier trials win says he is fit enough to be competitive here in his first start since May. He is classy and the 2kg he receives off talented Baltaine (No 2) might be enough to see him clear.
Run Like The Wind (No 9) is stepping way up in class, but has plenty of ability.
Racing: Follow Wheeler's entries and you won't go far wrong
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