The No. 17 barrier draw looks fearsome on paper, but it may not be enough to beat Mi Jubilee at Te Rapa tomorrow.
The flying Wanganui filly faces some tough opposition in the $60,000 Windsor Park Sunline Stakes, but she has beaten better.
Mi Jubilee comes off a beaten performance when she finished 16th behind the promoted Arlingtonboulevard in the group one Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha.
The secret here is she drops back from 1600m to 1200m tomorrow.
Only time will prove whether Mi Jubilee will successfully manage 1600m, but she had no chance to prove it at Te Aroha when she continually skied her head when rider Lee Callaway had to take hold of her mouth when she was crossed after 400m.
She is much more comfortable when allowed to run freely in front and from an outside barrier this time, there appears to be few options to that choice.
If the emergencies are the only scratchings, Mi Jubilee will start from barrier No. 13 and, although that is a tough ask at 1200m at Te Rapa, the task is not beyond her.
Mi Jubilee has blistering pace and should cross the opposition and get to the rail within 200m.
It will be left to the likes of Captain Kurt, Crepe De Chine, Waikeepadacash, Towzee and Bashful to run her down.
David Walsh will have his first ride on Mi Jubilee.
The Te Rapa track yesterday was 3.7 and slow. It was fine in Hamilton yesterday, but a total absence of wind meant little drying of the course proper.
"We don't want to be too pessimistic about it, but it looks like we're facing a slow track for Saturday," said Tony Enting of the Waikato Racing Club, which will host the Cambridge Jockey Club.
Wayne and Vanessa Hillis will not be keen to run Captain Kurt if the track gets worse than 3.7.
"Even at that level it's an inconvenience to him, but at least it is Te Rapa, which is the best winter surface in New Zealand," said Vanessa Hillis.
Captain Kurt tried hard to manage the very wet track at Tauranga last time and did well to finish second, but you could see he was not able to take a full stride.
Lance O'Sullivan has four acceptors, Crepe De Chine, Bashful and Smartway with Kenny Starfighter second drop on the ballot.
The Matamata trainer was pleased with the winning performance at Manawatu of Crepe De Chine.
"She doesn't mind some easing in the track."
Last October, Crepe De Chine easily managed a heavy surface at Rotorua to race away with the weight-for-age race at Rotorua carrying a featherweight 48.5kg.
Michael Walker has the ride this time.
"This is a fair bit better field than the one she beat last start," said O'Sullivan.
Stablemate Bashful dealt to a very useful line-up at Ellerslie last start when coming back from a short break.
Even with showers, O'Sullivan does not believe the footing would be heavy enough for Kenny Starfighter if he regained the field.
"A rating of 4.0 wouldn't be enough - he needs it to be around 6.0."
Donna Rosita is classy and you can forget she competed behind Bashful at Ellerslie last start. She carried 58kg topweight, was checked early and covered extra ground most of the race.
A much better guide for this was her remarkable fresh-up victory on this track on March 18.
Waikeepadacash is better than his last-start fifth behind Tachus at Te Aroha suggests. He carried 58kg that day and drops to level weights this time.
His stablemate Echo Maid adds even more depth to the field.
She looked very smart on 'off' tracks last year and could spring a real surprise while fresh.
* Latest odds:
$5 Captain Kurt; $5.50 Mi Jubilee; $6 Crepe de Chine; $10 Donna Rosita, Bashful; $11 Echo Maid; $12 Maz Quin, Towzee; $14 Kenny Starfighter; $15 Waikeepadacash; $20 Markisa, Langness; $25 Smartway, Bethpage, O'Noyoudont, Golden Eve; $30 Sweet Caroline; $50 Venus Bay.
Racing: Flying filly best over 1200m trip
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