Racing: Floydeboy in with a shout

Which should make Floydeboy (No 3, R4) the bet of the day. Floydeboy nearly pulled off the impossible in running the talented Cog Hill to a nose at Ellerslie last start. This field is a lot easier. Floydeboy hits the finish strongly and the 1400m is about his ideal distance. Opiki (No 8) and River Chief (No 9) are the values.

Tom O'Forbes (No 1, R2) found the conditions too testing when coming back from a break at Ellerslie last start, but still managed a terrific second to the smart Ala Moana. He should be fitter and slightly better track conditions this time are what he needs. There are a couple of useful sorts, Multi Tasker (No 12) and Tuscaloosa (No 2), to get over the top of, but Tom O'Forbes looks a great each-way prospect.

The Guitar Man (No 2, R5) is going to be a great bet when he gets out to 2000m, and will still be competitive at today's 1600m. Over that distance last start he was outsprinted late by Rapide. This race should be a touch more testing which will help. There is a long run down the back straight from the 1600m barrier at Te Rapa and it will be surprising if the No 19 barrier draw plays a big part.

Tony The Pony (No 2, R6) did not look comfortable at Rotorua last start and his third placing was a top effort. He is an on-pace runner that fights extremely hard and one that deserves a win. Buddy Lammas takes 2kg off his back and the combination will take beating if pace horses are suited on the day. Watch the first few flat races for a guide. Viaggio (No 11) is another who deserves a break.

Sir Valiant (No 3, R7) is going to be short on the tote and multiple options look the best way to go. Terrific veteran King Keitel (No 1) went wide on the home bend in his weight-for-age race at Wanganui last weekend and did not make ground on the leaders in the home straight. But if you watch the video again, neither did anything else in the race - it was just one of those tracks. This should be different and over 2000m King Keitel can show he still has some class left, even when approaching 11.

Trainer Jon Miller warns not to judge Marea (No 2, R8) as just a mudder. He feels the mare will prefer the better footing this time and get back on track to winning, which she does very well. There is room for an upset somewhere in the trifecta and Our Prized Rose (No 3) and Zarracha (No 4) could provide it.

A Great Life (No 5, R9) has done enough in the Central Districts lately to suggest she can figure in a very even and difficult field. Dropping back to 1400m should not be a problem. Diamondsareforever (No 3) and Taalisman (No 1) have a show.

If Shanamann (No 2, R10) stayed at home, Haylee Baylee (No 3) would be the bet of the day. Shanamann is talented and although he has not raced since October, he has to be kept safe. Some of his efforts last winter were staggering. The pair stand out in this field. Maybe couple up some multiples with the two and go for saving win bets on both. Should be a great race to end the day.