KEY POINTS:
If Cambridge trainer Roger James has not withdrawn his long-range 1000 and 2000 Guineas hopes at Avondale today it was a close call.
Squally afternoon showers yesterday had both his exciting Champagne Stakes winner Valpolicella and highly-rated maiden Dampierre marginal starters in their low-key season debuts.
James planned to make a cross-city drive after the Ellerslie trials to walk the track and assess for himself if there was any hope of yesterday's 4.3 penetrometer reading improving.
He was reserving a final decision on Valpolicella and Dampierre's immediate programme until the scratching deadline of 7.30am today.
"They are vulnerable when they're on the fresh side," said James.
"You can bottom them out and need another six weeks to get them back on track again if you do the wrong thing."
James also knows he is under no pressure to start today with plan B options up his sleeve for both horses on a much firmer Taupo on Friday.
The big-striding Dampierre also has a nomination for Awapuni on Saturday.
Wherever Valpolicella does step out first, James warns punters to take a cautious approach first-up over 1200m.
She may have furnished into what James describes as a "gorgeous" type since we saw her last race in April.
But the Red Ransom filly - an early $21 fixed odds hope for the 1000 Guineas (1600m) at Riccarton in November - was outpaced in a recent 1000m trial at Taupo behind Jacob.
"She wasn't competitive over 1200m last season and I don't expect things will change a great deal," said James.
"She's going to need 1600m and further to show her best."
At least James knows Valpolicella could handle some cut in the ground today; she won the listed Champagne stylishly on a 3.6 Ellerslie surface.
Dampierre could be a different story altogether, as would his stablemate and race-two rival Golan Star.
"Golan Star is in the same situation as the other two," said James.
"He's a three-year-old I think a bit of and is fresh-up. You've got to wonder if it's the right thing to do to send them around on that type of track."
The easy-on-the-eye Dampierre is rated a $31 2000 Guineas hope and Golan Star a $61 chance in the early Riccarton markets released by the TAB this week.
Meanwhile, it may pay to take the skinnier odds on Valpolicella's Avondale rival, Bert, today.
Danielle Johnson's mount shapes as the only anchor in a $125,000 PickSix minefield.
Bert looked smart in beating the well-fancied Capitan over the same 1200m trip here in June and has had little luck in four starts since.
Final-leg hope Danzahorse offers another chance to trim the PickSix.
Forget his last-start Hastings failure.
There's no Bear Coat to foil an uncontested lead today and he gets weight relief with apprentice James McDonald's 4kg claim.
