Racing: Firm Ellerslie track will suit Cog Hill just fine

Cog Hill carries 58kg into the Easter Handicap today.

Cog Hill faces a mammoth task to win today's $150,000 Easter Handicap, but he's in with a big chance to achieve a very significant victory.

In the past 30 years only one horse, the mighty Grey Way, has carried to Easter victory more than the 58kg Cog Hill is lumbered with today.

But one thing you know for certain, few horses all day will try harder from the 200m than Cog Hill in the Easter.

A definite factor in the result will be the track conditions. The firmer the track gets from a probable rating of around 3.0 early this morning, the better Cog Hill's chances will become.

The firmer the footing, the faster the race will be run and the better chance Cog Hill has of getting over the top of the leaders late in the race.

A surface that is 3.0 and dead at the start of the day should get to 2.5-2.6 by 4.18pm, which would be fractionally less than ideal, but not enough to use as an excuse to beat Cog Hill.

Easter victories are hard-fought and there will be a handful of horses chipping away at the lead late, right at the time the effects of 58kg are starting to be felt.

Temple Hills, ArlingtonBoulevard, Korau Road and perhaps Rags To Riches are all chances to figure in the finish and that is not the end of the prospects.

Temple Hills has been taken along steadily with this race in mind and he has got in with an attractive 51.5kg.

The yield in the surface will suit and he appeals as one to be attacking halfway up the home straight.

Roger James has a good opinion of Ashmahan (No 4, R2).

It is not easy dropping back from 2400m to 1600m, but the Zabeel filly has had a month to freshen and has won and been placed from three 1600m races.

Giving even just half a kilo to Howmuchyacharging (No 2, R3) will not be easy, but Donna Rosita (No 1) made such an impression winning at Te Rapa when fresh from a break that she appeals. The weights will decide this because Lance O'Sullivan has claimed 4kg off the back of Bashful (No 3) via Craig Grylls, which means the talented Matamata filly will be getting 5kg off Donna Rosita.

Complicating that even further is the fact that Bashful has drawn outside the other pair and, being a natural on-speed horse, will need to use valuable gas to get to the rail. There is probably not much between this trio - the bet might be each-way on the one offering the best value on the tote.

Forgive Hasta La Ciao Ciao (No 5, R4) being beaten favourite at Trentham on March 18. The track that day beat plenty of runners, particularly those that got back in running as did Hasta La Ciao Ciao. This looks a perfect race for her. Take the short odds.

The way Cadre Noir (No 2, R5) got to the line in the 1400m Manawatu Sires, he is going to he tough to hold out over 1600m in the Champagne Stakes. He has yet to win in three starts, but looks a youngster of real ability.

Yesterday, Avaroadi (No 2, R7) was still accepted for two races with a jockey declared for each. If he starts in the 1600m PQ he makes appeal to recover from his seventh at New Plymouth last start. He didn't seem suited that day and was second-up from a spell. He has had time to recover and comes into this race in good shape with Lisa Cropp in the saddle.

Don't drop Hi Yo Wassup (No 3) just yet either. That shocking track at Tauranga didn't suit her.

Stepping up to 2100m might suit Olivernotha (No 11, R10). The three runs he has had should have him fit.