Racing: Final Reality a genuine wet-weather galloper

You don't get as many sure bets during the winter months as you do in summer, but the ones you can sort out are the real deal.

It generally comes down to the fact that a handful of horses are genuine freaks on wet weather footing.

Racing on dry tracks, sheer class and luck in the running are the main deciders.

In the wet, simply being able to handle the footing lengths better than the opposition makes a horse a good thing, outside of chronic bad luck.

Final Reality at Manawatu today looks one of those horses. He has never really looked like getting beaten in six starts on a slow or heavy track.

He gets the latter in the $30,000 Richards Construction 3YO today and, despite his 59.5kg topweight, looks a wonderful bet.

Take the short odds. Final Reality carried 1kg less than when winning at Riccarton last start and looked as though he could have managed an additional 3kg.

He may not be in the same class, but Kenny Starfighter (No6, R8) at Ellerslie should finally get the type of track he has been looking for.

There was plenty of money to say Lance O'Sullivan would get the first win out of him at Te Rapa last start, but that April 29 wet track brought more than half the runners undone.

This Ellerslie surface will be more the testing, wet surface he has been looking for. There have been few more testing tracks in the north than the recent Dargaville meeting and Tom Tom Cat (No3) managed it beautifully. Based on that he should be worth staying with from now on when there is rain around.

Given the Northern Hemisphere record of the Montjeu stock, you have to say his horses in New Zealand have thus far been disappointing. But one of them, Grand Chevaux (No2, R1) should go close to quitting maidens at Ellerslie today. The Montjeus cope with wet tracks and his first-up third at Dargaville was sound enough to suggest with that race behind him he should be very competitive. Venus Bay (No11) is close to a win.

O'Reason (No1, R3) would not need to improve much on his first-up Rotorua second to be difficult to keep out. The 2kg Daniel Hain takes off his back could be the key. Love Profound (No8) is another who will be fitter one run back from a spell and gets a 3kg claim via Craig Grylls.

Two-year-olds in very heavy, testing ground is sometimes a risk, but Bianca (No5, R4) is worth supporting and staying with. The favourite Habana (No1) is under offer to Hong Kong and may come out, but even if he lies up, Bianca will be some value. The left-handed track at Te Rapa last start did her few favours and back on a more comfortable right-handed circuit, she has some appeal. Stay with her. Matata (No6) has claims.

Race 5, a 2100m apprentice riders affair, is tricky. Quartze (No1) won a similar event at Dargaville fresh from a short break and remains in the same class. Craig Grylls pulls 3kg off his 58kg and he rates again. Dicktator (No7) is the improver and one to watch. He should be fitter for his first-up run at Avondale and is capable in this class.

Once Grani (No1, R6) strikes form in the wet he generally holds it. There was a lot to like about the way he dealt to the Avondale opposition and the 3kg allowance Charlie Faulkner has decided to go with means Grani will carry only half a kilo above the minimum. Expectalite (No2) is showing signs of coming back to form.

O'Sullivan could take the last two on the card with Kenny Starfighter in the eighth and Tosto (No3, R9). The filly has not struck conditions as wet as she will face, but made a good job of the slow conditions at Te Rapa.

The value runners could be Mia Bambino (No4) and Restitution (No11). Mia Bambino, from New Plymouth, has won her two races at Ellerslie. She returns from a spell, but if she needed the outing you might have thought she could have had a prep race at Manawatu today. Restitution showed a glimpse of real ability last campaign.