Racing: Fillies find going tough at Valley

Three-year-olds in the Cox Plate - a bad gamble.

And that even though the Southern Hemisphere's greatest weight-for-age race was won two years ago by 3-year-old Savabeel.

Savabeel joined Octagonal (1995), Red Anchor (1984) and Surround (1976) as the only 3-year-old Cox Plate winners in 30 years.

And it needs to be remembered that Octagonal and Red Anchor were so dominant in their years, they would have won any race.

Quite simply they were the best horses of any age in Australia in their 3-year-old year.

So what chance does Lisa Cropp have of finding the finish line first for a A$3 million ($3.4 million) prize on classy Melbourne filly Miss Finland at Moonee Valley this afternoon?

Well, the last filly to try it was the very talented Slight Chance, who finished third to Super Impose and Kinjite in the Cox Plate of 1992.

That is the closest finish of the 10 fillies that have tried the race since Surround immortalised herself by winning as a 3-year-old filly 30 years ago. Her superiority that year was remarkable.

The placings of those 10 fillies were 10th, 7th, 10th, 10th, 6th, 11th, 8th, 9th, 5th, 10th.

Miss Finland propelled herself into this race with a storming late run to just get up and beat the fillies in the A$500,000 1000 Guineas at Caulfield 10 days ago.

Last year the Bart Cummings-trained God's Own won the Caulfield Guineas and could finish only 8th in Makybe Diva's Cox Plate.

Overall, 3-year-olds have a good record against the older horses at weight-for-age, particularly in the autumn and, to a lesser extent, even in the spring.

But the Cox Plate is different because of the way it's run. Moonee Valley has a short home straight and for such a big prize riders cut their mounts loose with 700m, sometimes 800m, from the finish.

Who could forget the epic Cox Plate when Waverley Star sprinted at the 800m, Bonecrusher went with him on the outside and not one of the other runners could keep up.

As spectacular as that was, it was not unique - almost every Cox Plate is run the same way and 3-year-olds are simply not mature enough to handle that blowtorch pressure.

They are only just turning three years old and few have the maturity to cope. Savabeel, Octagonal, Red Anchor and Surround were all very mature for their age.

Miss Finland has a natural advantage in that she can really storm home over the final 300m of her races and if Cropp can get nice cover then a drag into the race when the sprint comes on at the 700m, there might be a chance of her getting into it.

The alternative is to take the usual route when you have a big weight advantage and lead, making the others really carry their big weights.

But leading in a Cox Plate has buried many of the 3-year-olds. They are left too vulnerable in the run up to the home bend and just cannot maintain the sprint.

It will be interesting to see what tactics Cropp and in-form trainer David Hayes agree on.

There is no Makybe Diva this time, but Sydney's Racing To Win and local hero El Segundo are class acts and the imported Grey Swallow, making his Australian debut, is also very talented.