KEY POINTS:
Mark Purdon knew his three-year-old dream season couldn't last forever. But he could be excused for thinking it wouldn't get this tough quite this quickly.
Purdon and training partner Grant Payne completely dominated the three-year-old ranks from September to December, producing eight individual winners and providing the quinella in the Sires Stakes Final at Addington.
But in the past three weeks Purdon and Lady Luck have got divorced.
His best three-year-old, Auckland Reactor, doesn't pace well right-handed so has stayed in Canterbury while last season's juvenile of the year Ohoka Arizona has broken down and is out for the season.
As if that wasn't bad enough Purdon still has six high-class three-year-olds ready to go for today's huge premier at Alexandra Park but unbelievably they have all drawn the second line. That particularly hurts in the $220,000 PGG Wrightsons Sales Series Pace because likely favourite Georgetown has drawn perfectly at barrier four.
"That is going to make it hard for my three," said Purdon of Fiery Falcon, Steven McQueen and Texas Hold Em.
Texas Hold Em's draw has robbed him of the chance to use his gate speed and that leaves Purdon rating Fiery Falcon his best hope on today's richest race.
But he has drawn one on the second line, meaning he will need a lot to go right to win.
"He is going the best of my three at the moment but it is a tricky draw.
"If they go really hard then things might open up and we have a chance but if I look up after 400m and Georgetown is getting the lead then we could be in trouble."
Fiery Falcon may be the most talented horse in the 2200m event but he often settles for second and Georgetown looks his biggest problem.
The Ken Barron-trained gelding has developed significantly on his trip north and came from a second-line draw to beat most of these last start.
If he can lead without too much pressure he will take a power of running down.
Justa Tiger set a national age group record for this distance last start so is a danger from the ace, while Mattnamaras Band and Benny Mac look the best each-way upsetters.
Purdon faces the same second-line problems with Tarania Franco and Fight Fire With Fire in the $150,000 IRT Sires Championship for the fillies and their draws are made much worse by warm favourite Susie Maguire drawing the ace.
If the latter leads easily, as expected, then she may be unbeatable as she looks the best of her crop but Purdon still rates his pair.
"We all know it isn't going to be easy, but Tarania Franco is very good," said Purdon.
"I think she is up to Susie Maguire but she has to do things right.
"So I will just worry about getting her away at the start and then we can think about catching Susie Maguire." Tarania Franco was a massive second in a similar race last start but is so hit and miss in the score-up punters would want $5 or $6 to make her a value betting option today.
Fight Fire With Fire is not as good but more reliable, but the biggest danger to Susie Maguire might be Natal Franco.
The Southland filly was luckless last start and is very tough. Don't be surprised to see her take the race to the favourite today.
The blowout factor in that event is Eyecatcher Courage, who staged a huge recovery after breaking in the lead-up race two weeks ago.
And just in case you were wondering who Purdon's best chance of breaking the second-line hoodoo today is?
"Machs Tenor in the last race would be our best.
"He has that same tough draw but is a pretty good horse."
