The only answer can be you weigh that up with great difficulty.
Racing at group one level anywhere is as much - and often more - about ringcraft and mental maturity as it is about ability levels.
This is why there are a long list of 3-year-olds who have been beaten when racing in Cox Plates. They didn't lack ability, just time at the coalface.
Everything about Ponderosa Miss - a 4-year-old - says she is mature beyond her experience. She might be a touch light physically, not untypical of the High Chaparrals, but mentally she is remarkable as she showed two weeks ago when she didn't hesitate taking a narrow rails home straight gap most thought she would baulk, remembering the terrible August race accident at her previous start that nearly cost her her life.
Her presence in this race provides the feature with a fascinating contest.
At $5.50 favourite on fixed odds with the TAB there are plenty who have already spoken with their wallets to say they believe Ponderosa Miss can score what would be an astonishing victory.
Can anyone remember the last time a horse came from winning an R85 with 54kg to take a group one race under 56.5kg against a field of this strength?
Despite what appears to be inflated odds of $12 with the TAB, Veyron will take some beating.
He has a good record to protect. He finished second to Shez Sinsational in this race three years ago and won it the following year. He was sidelined for last year's contest.
In retrospect, last week's 1600m at Te Rapa was a disaster. Trainer Linda Laing had no choice but to grab an apprentice claim for Veyron's 63kg and Jack Wong had trouble managing the veteran's strength.
Veyron and his co-leader ran blistering sectionals down the back straight and Veyron took charge at the 800m, setting up a remarkable 1:33.69 1600m time. It was no surprise Veyron couldn't keep going late and fourth was better than it looked.
He is a much better horse right-handed and has won nine of 15 at Ellerslie.
It would be a good time to put his stamp on the race for the second time.
In the Ellerslie grandstand will be Veyron's regular rider Rogan Norvall's family.
The Cambridge jockey's parents have made a special trip from Zimbabwe and his sister, a veterinarian, arrived a few days ago from her base in the United States.
"It's nice to have the family around for a big race like this. I hope Veyron and I can do them proud," said Norvall.
Sports Illustrated is in a similar situation to Ponderosa Miss, having had just 10 raceday starts, but you had to love the way she sprinted away from Atacama late at Te Rapa last start.
This is considerably tougher, but she is a strapping mare who will eventually measure up to any class.
Barrier draws count for plenty. Shuka overcame his outside gate to win the group one Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham last start, but that had just eight runners and he is a lot worse off with the outside gate but one of the 14 runners this time.
If Shuka can find a miracle run from that barrier, he certainly has the class and determination to win.
Stars at Ellerslie
• The Zabeel Classic has attracted a high-quality entry.
• Rogan Norvall has a special reason for hoping Veyron can win the race for the second time.
• Up-and-comer Ponderosa Miss has been backed into favouritism.
