KEY POINTS:
Tonight's Reg Clapp Winter Cup has gone from being a lead-up race to the last roll of the dice for favourite Awesome Armbro but that still doesn't mean punters should get carried away with the speedster.
Awesome Armbro faces a 50m backmark in the $25,000 event, which was to have been a conditioning race to keep him fit for an Australian winter campaign.
But his connections have decided to keep him in New Zealand, meaning tonight's 2700m contest will be his last for the season.
That may slightly change trainer Geoff Small's attitude as he now realises Awesome Armbro can have a hard run without having to worry about the short-term consequences.
While Small acknowledges that, he still says Awesome Armbro will need plenty to go right to win.
"Not many horses win off 50m handicaps at Alexandra Park, especially in this grade," said Small.
"I think he could do it but hewill need plenty of things to go his way."
The first thing Awesome Armbro needs to get right is the standing start, which has been his Achilles heal.
Most horses tend to begin better when by themselves off a backmark, especially as Awesome Armbro won't have any horses within 20m of him, meaning he shouldn't become unbalanced dodging traffic.
But then punters have to hope he isn't run off his hooves.
"If they step and run hard off the front line then we might be chasing all the way," said Small.
"So it is a tricky one. But he is working well so we are hopeful, rather than confident."
A winner of his past two starts in near open class company at Addington, Awesome Armbro is a speed pacer rather than an iron horse, suggesting driver David Butcher will need to be at his brilliant corner-cutting best to get him home tonight.
But while the 50m handicap looks tough, he is probably 20m better than Pulsation, who starts off the 30m mark, so it is more the conditions of the race which will trouble him than the opposition.
The next best pacer in the race is Ebony Gem, who is having his first standing start tonight.
If he begins safely then he should be suited by the likely hot pace and would rival Awesome Armbro for speed so he looks the better bet.
Small faces similarly tricky draws for his other winning chances tonight, Maheer Skipper and Commitment (race five) and Roman Conqueror (race nine).
All three are capable of winning but would appreciate a hot pace in their races to bring the better-drawn runners back to them.
Punters looking for a $100,000 Pick6 anchor, which starts on race five, would be best to stick with Ohoka Utah (race nine) or Franco Tetris (race 10).
